ATFXForeign exchange market: The number of initial jobless claims in the United States significantly decreased last week, with manufacturing sectorPMIlarge...
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周三公布的美联储货币政策会议纪要显示,大部分委员认为加息周期已进入尾声,但不应该过快的进入降息进程。主要原因是:美国各项经济指标均表现良好,通胀率虽有下降但仍高于2%的目标,劳动力市场的需求依然非常强劲,GDP仍处在正增长状态。我们认为,美国经济数据表现越健康,美联储就越是不希望过早降息,因为过早降息可能导致高通胀卷土重来。昨日,美国劳工部公布美国至2month17日当周初请失业金人数,最新值20.1Ten thousand people, far below the previous value20.3万人和低于预期值21.8万人,意味着上周失业率的总人数下降。第三方统计机构公布的美国2monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIThe initial value is51.5, at50荣枯线上方,远高于前值50.7And expected values50.5,表明美国的制造业正处于快速扩张态势。无论是劳动力市场还是整个制造产业,数据都一派欣欣向荣,这使得“降息预期”变得越来越微弱,美元直指数的反弹走势得到增强。
Beijing time today4:15,费城联储主席哈克讲话称:“美联储目前可以按兵不动,暂无降息的急迫性;不会排除美联储在5月份降息的可能性”。此番讲话意味深长,整体来看态度偏鹰,对美元指数多头信心形成提振。目前来看,美联储各个委员的统一表态均为“降息与否取决于未来的经济数据表现”。所以,追踪并研判每月发布的美国CPI、失业率、初请失业率等数据变得至关重要。这也是为什么昨日的初请失业金数据和制造业PMI数据如此受市场重视的原因。下周四美国商务部将公布1Monthly CorePCE物价指数年率,该数据被美联储主席鲍威尔所看重,一旦数据如预期一般下降,美联储降息的可能性将上升,美元指数或受利空冲击。
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