Ultima MarketsMarket Review and Outlook: Weakened expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, market...

Last week's review

市场关注核心在美联储通胀数据，上周公布的CPIandPPI数据均削弱了美联储的降息前景。U.S.A1Monthly CoreCPI月率上涨至0.4%，1monthPPIYear-on-year increase0.9%, month on month increase0.3%，均超过预期。美国互换合约定价美联储5Month6月降息的可能性下降，预期美联储2024年降息幅度不及90个基点，而2月初这一预期为150Basis points.

Market outlook

本周美国纽交所因总统日休市一日，芝商所旗下贵金属、美国crude oilfutures合约交易提前于北京时间20day03:30End,stock market index期货合约交易则提前于北京时间20day02:00结束。市场当周重点聚焦于货币政策会议纪要，澳洲联储、美联储和欧央行将陆续公布各自的会议纪要。数据方面，欧美2monthPMI数据来袭。2monthPMI数据将使投资者了解各地区在进入新年中经济的强势能否保持。

澳联储会议纪要

周二澳联储将公布2Minutes of the monthly monetary policy meeting.2月初澳联储继续将政策利率维持在4.35%不变，符合市场预期。此前澳联储表示通胀下降速度比之前预期稍快，原因是商品和服务通胀仍然较高，但不排除进一步加息的可能性。

Minutes of the Federal Reserve Meeting

周四美联储将公布最新货币政策会议纪要。自上次会议以来，大多数美联储官员都表示不要过早降息，上周通胀数据也暂时验证了这一观点。若会议纪要中体现出委员们对利率变动保持耐心的坚定态度，则美元或将获得更多上行动力。

Minutes of the European Central Bank meeting

周四同日，欧央行将公布会议纪要。欧洲央行在1月底选择将利率维持在纪录高位4%，并指出潜在通胀的下降趋势仍在继续，过去的加息继续有力地传导至融资条件。但是基于经济前景的不确定性，当前投资者就欧央行首次降息时机的争论愈发激烈，关注会议纪要中是否就降息路径有较为明确的说法。

Disclaimers

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