Ultima Markets【 Market Analysis 】 The pound is currently converging and fluctuating, or it may be the end of the bulls...

todayUltimaMarkets Bringing you 2024year 2month 16日英镑兑美元In depth analysis.

Fundamental points

• 美国仍需政策刺激: USA1Monthly retail sales rate -0.8%, lower than expected-0.1%Last year3月以来最大降幅。在零售销售数据公布后，互换市场定价反映出美联储在2024年进行更多的政策宽松。
• 英国当前经济状况：根据本周英国数据显示，经济在2023年下半年进入衰退。而今年1月份核心通胀率又仍保持在5%以上。这暗示当前英国紧缩的货币政策仍需要保持一段时间，而未来零售销售和就业相关数据显示通胀存在下行动力，则英央行随时准备宽松政策来确保经济在2024年回升。
  

technical analysis

Weekly chart analysis

（英镑兑美元周线图，来源Ultima Markets MT4）

• Random oscillation index：指标在超卖区域发出空头信号后缓慢下跌，暗示当前多头力量并未过多介入，行情存在反转或加速下跌的可能。
• 强劲的阻力：英镑受阻于周线级别的下跌趋势线，而下方又受黑色33周均线的支撑。因此当前汇价处于收敛震荡的过程，等待任意方向的突破出现，届时再关注是否存在顺势入场的交易机会。
  

4Hour chart analysis

(GBP USD)4Hour chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

• Downward channel lineExchange rate since last year12月底开始震荡下行，形成下行通道线。而2月初汇价在下行通道线再次遇阻反弹。本周以来的上涨大概率将延续2月初的反弹趋势。
• Elliott Wave Theory ：基于前期反弹的波浪结构来看，汇价目前或处于（C）浪反弹中，关注上方斐波那契回撤位的61.8%。该区域也是绿色240周期均线一带。若继续上破则看向通道线上沿附近。
  

Trading CentralHub Line Indicators

(GBP USD)30Minute chart, sourceUltima Markets APP）

• according toUltima Markets APPInTradingCentralHub line indicators, central price range for the day1.2570，
• 1.2570Upward bullish, first goal1.2605Second objective1.2620
• 1.2570Under bearish, first target1.2555Second objective1.2540
  

Disclaimers

The comments, news, research, analysis, pricing, and other information contained in this article can only be considered as general market information and are provided solely to assist readers in understanding the market situation and do not constitute investment advice.UltimaMarketsReasonable measures have been taken to ensure the accuracy of the data, but the accuracy of the data cannot be guaranteed and can be changed at any time without notice.UltimaMarketsWe will not be responsible for any losses or losses (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.