IC Markets Global: Daily market analysis(2024-02-05)

The stock market and US dollar surged after strong non-farm employment data

With employment data far exceeding investor expectations, the US market experienced a significant increase on Friday, and the main figures in non farm employment data are expected to increase18.7Ten thousand job positions, but the actual increase35.3Ten thousand, and the average salary data also exceeded expectations. The three major indexes in the United States have all performed well, with the Dow Jones Index closing higher0.35%The S&P index is rising1.07%After setting another record close, NASDAQ rose1.74%The latter two were affected byMetaThe strong profitability results of Amazon have provided tremendous support. The US dollar reached a seven week high on the index after the employment data was released, while the yield of US treasury bond bonds soared,10Annual yield increase16Bps to4.03%,2Annual yield increase18One basis point, rebounding to4.37%. Oil prices have fallen nearly2%Brent fell back to77.33dollar/Barrel,WTITrading in72.28Around USD,goldFalling from its recent high and closing at per ounce2035About USD.

Strong employment data may temporarily slow down the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve

Friday's strong employment data may prompt those who hope the Federal Reserve will2024Investors who started the easing cycle earlier this year felt uneasy. The three data releases on Friday all indicate that the US job market is very resilient, which may (some economists believe should) lead to the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at higher levels for a period of time that exceeds market expectations. Some traders observed the average hourly income data more carefully, which increased on a monthly basis0.6%Expected to be0.3%This is seen as a strong sign of sustained wage inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be available during prime time in the United States today60Speaking within minutes, he has already postponed the market's response to3The expectation of a monthly interest rate cut, if he makes more hawkish remarks again, may lead to the US dollar starting to break through the new high range at the beginning of the year.

Active starting from trading week

Once the Asian market starts trading this morning, traders will usher in an active trading week. They will not only see new levels after the release of US employment data on Friday, but also receive the latest information from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in his speech during prime time in the US. Later that day, the focus will shift to China and the latest Caixin Service Industry Purchasing Managers Index will be released（PMI）Data, expected to be53.0. There are not many noteworthy things to interrupt the momentum during the European period, however, traders will closely monitor the first data release in the United States this weekISMService industryPMIData, expected to be available in52.0Around the level, any upward outcome may further drive the strong environment of the US dollar.

IC Markets Global Chinese team