Ultima Markets: [Market Hotspot] US CorePCE Cooling down, interest rate cuts may come soon

U.S.A2023year12Excluding the core of food and energy with significant fluctuations on a monthly basisPCEThe price index has increased compared to the previous month0.2%，与市场预测一致，相比 11 Of0.1% 增幅略有上升。

从年比走势来看，核心PCE物价年增2.9%，略低于市场预估之3% 涨幅，为2021year2The lowest level since the beginning of the month.

将我们的注意力转向涵盖范围更广的整体个人消费支出（PCE），包括能源和食品，月环比上涨 0.2%，而与前年相比上涨 2.6%，符合市场预待。单商品物价和2022年相比，涨幅不到 0.1%，然而服务价格则始终保持在高位，达到 3.9%。

(US CorePCE物价指数，BEA)

PCE数据公布后，美元保持稳定。由于投资者等待美联储本周三即将公布的货币政策决定，美元指数升至103.7, for12月中旬以来的最高点。

尽管预计利率将保持稳定，但人们将特别关注有关今年可能降息的预计时间和利率的任何暗示。目前 3 Monthly interest rate reduction 25 The probability of a basis point is approximately 49%, and 5 月同样降息的可能性为50%。因投资人押注欧洲央行最早将于四月降低贷款利率，美元相对于欧元的买盘活动激增。另外，美元兑英镑在英国央行本周四货币政策会议前走强。

(美元指数月线图)

   

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