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As of2024year01month29日亚盘,上周五公布了市场非常关注的美国PCE物价指数,结果显示通胀水平整体回落理想,这一定程度上重新提升了美联储三月份降息的预期,不过由于此前的美国经济数据保持强劲,所以在下周利率决议出炉之前,恐怕难以令gold价格产生太大的动静,接下来或会保持谨慎的姿态。
Hong Kong's top ten pension company, Datian Global Zero slip point low point difference:202.hk/zhuanti/cpc_v1.html?c=812
PCE回落理想美联储降息重新升温
美联储关注的基本通胀指标PCE年增长率呈现近三年来的最慢水平,这加剧了市场对美联储开始降息的预期。据最新数据,扣除波动较大的食品和能源部分的核心PCE物价指数年率同比增长2.9%, lower than expected3%。
实际个人消费支出月率连续第二个月上涨,增幅为0.5%. As the main supporting factor for consumer spending, the growth of actual disposable income0.1%But the increase is the smallest in three months.
According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation2Monthly interest rate maintained at5.25%-5.50%The probability of interval invariance is97.4%Interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is2.6%。
To3The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is52.6%Accumulated interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is46.2%Accumulated interest rate reduction50The probability of a basis point is1.2%。
COMEX黄金期货主力合约北京时间1month26day21:30--21:31Instant trading within one minute2470Hand, total value of trading contracts5.0USD100mn
美国个人支出月率数据方面,美国消费者继续展现韧性,这可能使美联储在更长时间内保持观望。
尽管数据基本符合预期,但2.9%The core ofPCEThe statement that the annual rate of the price index is slightly better than expected, which helps to bring inflation back down. However, consumer performance has been booming, with a significant increase in consumption this month and a slight upward revision in data from last month.