CPT MarketsOil supply interruption and market tension have led to a nearly four week new increase in oil prices...

Brentcrude oil (Brent Oil)：

After a significant increase in Brent crude oil on Monday, it opened for consolidation today79.53Nearby, due to the continuous rise in oil prices in the latter half of this week, prices are close to the upper edge of the rangeEIAWeekly data shows that crude oil inventories have decreased, which is beneficial for oil prices.

In terms of favorable factors, it is influenced byNorsiThe decline in refinery production has further affected Russia's crude oil processing volume. According to people familiar with industry data,1month11Solstice17Daily processing in Russia550Ten thousand barrels of crude oil, compared to before this month10The daily average level has decreased by about1.1Ten thousand barrels, even better than12Most of the time, the month has dropped by nearly3.8Ten thousand barrels. Due to the seasonal increase in consumption of diesel and fuel oil, the processing volume of Russian crude oil usually increases during winter. However,NorsiThe damage to the catalytic cracking unit in the refinery has led to a decrease in gasoline production, suppressing the overall average level. 1month11Solstice17Day,NorsiRefinery crude oil processing volume is relatively high12The daily processing volume for most of the month has decreased by more than5.1Ten thousand barrels.

In addition, the latest predictions from the US Energy Intelligence Agency, the International Energy Agency, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries indicate that the range of demand growth this year is124Wanzhi22510000 barrels/During the day, however, all three organizations are expected to2025The annual demand growth will slow down. So far, the phenomenon of oversupply in several refineries in Germany has been particularly prominent. In addition, despite a decrease in temperature, domestic demand in Germany, including heating oil, remains slow during the New Year. This is mainly because end users are able to rely on inventory, as they previously had12Stock up in large quantities every month. ArgusData display for1The level of private and industrial storage tanks is higher than the same period last year. Faced with sufficient domestic supply and slowing demand, importers are hesitant to import more oil from Germany. Imports to the Rhine River and northern ports are both decreasing as relatively low inland prices squeeze the profits of importers. The shipowner stated that this is also reflected in Germany's weakened demand for spot cabins. This month, the transportation demand for products entering Germany through the Rhine River has significantly decreased, pushing down shipping costs.

In summary, the fermentation of geopolitical factors has brought certain benefits to the cost side of oil prices, but the market is still concernedOPEC+The voluntary production reduction effect and global economic outlook have led to significant fluctuations in international oil prices recently, putting significant pressure on fuel prices. The overall fundamentals of high sulfur fuel have not changed much. Due to the spread of the Red Sea incident and the deviation, the market's expectations for future ship fuel demand have increased. Recently, with the narrow range of oil prices, high sulfur fuel has further entered a stage of adjustment, and attention should be paid to the subsequent trend of oil prices.

Press from above(Upper resistance) 79.50，79.90； From the downward direction, the lower support79.10。

CPT MarketsRisk Tips and Disclaimers : The above article content is for reference only and is not intended as future investment advice.CPT Markets The articles published are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news as reference.