Hong Kong's Da Tian Global: Difficulty in March Interest Rate Reduction Becomes Greater, Blocking Gold's Rise

As of2024year01month23During the Japanese Asian trading period, recentgoldThe price trend is mainly characterized by volatility. Although there is no doubt about a rate cut within the year, as long as the specific time point is not determined, the difficulty of opening up the upper space will become greater, especially in the face of variable inflation levels in the United States and strong economic data performance last week. The market believes that the possibility of a rate cut in March is unlikely, so the recent gold price may even experience a downward pressure.

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　　The situation in the Middle East provides support for gold prices

As tensions escalate in the Middle East and the US dollar falls, gold prices continue to rebound2030Near the US dollar. However, concerns about the global economy offset the dangers of geopolitical and oil production disruptions, leading to a slight decline in oil prices. This week has many highlights, except for the peak of the financial reporting season, where major central banks will announce interest rate decisions and release important economic data for the United States, making it a "super week".

After experiencing an unstable start to the year, Standard&Poor's500The index has risen by more than1%, received at4,839.81 Point, surpassing 2022year1The historical high since the beginning of the month, but the final unstable trend highlights the further upward trend of the US stock market, which will rely on the Federal Reserve to continue on a subtle tightrope.

The recent release of data reminds people that inflationary pressure still exists. United States12The monthly price increase rate is faster than expected;Retail sales are growing at their strongest pace in three months.

However, the confidence of American consumers has rebounded strongly,1The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey for the month is78.8, higher than12Of the month69.7。

Particularly sensitive to interest rate expectations2The yield of one-year treasury bond bonds rose after the latest inflation data of the United States was released, but it was still higher than the end of last year0.13Percentage points.

The resilience of the US economy remains strong, coupled with12Despite the rebound in monthly inflation data and the continued strength of the domestic labor market, Federal Reserve officials still support the idea of starting interest rate cuts this year, despite the timing being later than expected.

San Francisco Fed Chairman Mary Daley(Mary Daly)Last Friday(1month19day)She believes that it is "too early" to cut interest rates now and points out that she needs to see more evidence that inflation rates continue to rise 2%Only then can policies be relaxed.

In addition to inflation data, Daley said she will look for any early signs of the labor market starting to shake to help her make a decision.

The Federal Reserve will1month30Solstice31The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to hold a meeting on the(FOMC)Will be continuously ranked4Maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged. Daley's remarks were one of the last statements made by Federal Reserve officials.

From Federal Reserve Director Christopher Waller(Christopher Waller)Since earlier this week when it was stated that policy measures should be "carefully adjusted rather than rushed,",3The possibility of a monthly interest rate cut has significantly decreased.

In addition, Daley pointed out that the US balance sheet is in a "good" state, but she will still closely monitor the default rate to seek early warning signals of economic slowdown. Atlanta Fed Chairman Rafael Bostek stated that the baseline for interest rate cuts is in the third quarter.

　　crude oilThe short-term upward trend is difficult to continue

The crude oil price is unable to continue the two-day upward trend and oscillates within a narrow trading range. Worries about the global economy have offset the tension in the Middle East and the danger of oil production disruptions, resulting in a slight decline in oil prices. Oil prices recorded a weekly increase, with Brent crude oil prices rising by approximately0.5%And the benchmark crude oil price in the United States has risen by more than1%。

Due to the extreme cold disrupting US oil production and the escalating tensions in the Middle East caused by a new round of strikes by the US on the Houser anti-ship missile, crude oil prices have slightly increased.BMI Research"Over time, the continued interruption of Red Sea oil supply will increase the pressure on the energy market," analysts said in a report

However, "the response of energy price actions to the crisis is quite moderate." Analysts say that the market believes that the risk of broader conflicts and supply disruptions is unlikely or limited. At the same time, the International Energy Agency stated that it is expected that the growth rate of global oil demand will significantly slow down this year, rather than OPEC+The country's production is higher than expected, which will boost supply.

Brent's premium for the first month contract relative to the six month contract has risen to per barrel2.15USD, for11The highest level since the beginning of the month. This structure is called spot premium, indicating that people perceive supply to be tight in order to deliver on time.

The North Dakota Pipeline Authority, the third largest producer state in the United States, said on Friday that due to extreme cold, the state30%The oil production is still in a closed state. Mid week production decreased by approximately7010000 barrels/Day, which means more than half. The state regulatory agency stated on Friday that production may take a month to return to normal levels.

Brokerage companyOANDAAnalyst Craig Elam(CraigErlam)"Supply disruption remains an upward risk, but there are also downward risks, including the global economy," said the statement

The International Energy Agency raised the price this week2024Global demand forecast for the year, but its forecast is only for the organization of oil producing countriesOPECHalf of the prediction. This Paris based institution also stated that unless there is a significant interruption in traffic2024The annual market supply looks quite abundant.

Meanwhile, Baker Hughes stated that the number of oil drilling platforms operated in the United States(Early indicators of production)Reduced this week2Seat, to497Seat.

As the cross mountain pipeline is about to be completed, crude oil producers in Alberta will increase production, and Canada will also hit a new high in production, making it easier for this oil exporting country to increase its original light and low sulfur crude oil supply to the United States. Logistics chain.

As the fourth largest crude oil producer in the world, Canada is preparing to further push the United States towards the top spot as a net producer and exporter of downstream petroleum products worldwide.