其一,通胀率快速下降,失业率处于相对低位。英国12Monthly nominalCPIthe annual rate4%,已经脱离恶性通胀状态。尤其是10Of the monthCPI年率增速,从6.7%Sudden drop to4.6%,展现出极强的通胀回落特征。核心通胀率已经从2023年最高点7.1%Descend to5.1%,并维持了两个月时间。同样意味着高通胀已经不再是困扰英国经济的重大因素。劳动力市场方面,11月份最新失业率4.2%,连续四个月保持稳定,低于5%的充分就业标准,意味着社会中的失业人员相对较少。
From a technical perspective,GBPUSD处于中长期多头趋势的横向震荡阶段,虽然开年来美元指数不断反弹,但英镑并未表现出明显的贬值走势。市价处于蓝色回归线下方,但由于最近三根K线未形成底分型结构,所以回归牵引力尚不发挥作用。震荡指标KD的读数处于中间区域,此前已经在高位形成死差,意味着跌势仍有下行空间。MACD指标的柱线长期处于零轴下方,但绝对值偏低,意味着中短期空头下跌走势力度不够强。综合来看,多数指标认为GBPUSD的震荡偏空的走势仍将延续。
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