Ultima Markets【 Market Analysis 】 Australia, Japan, and domestic bears are strong, but caution is needed to follow...

todayUltima Markets Bringing you 2024year 1month 16日澳元兑日元In depth analysis.

Fundamental points

•   市场静待日央行转变：日本央行前董事会成员Makoto Sakurai在上周接受采访时表示，日本央行已完全准备好结束世界上最后一次负利率政策，四月份是最有可能这样做的时机，他们只是在等待一两个经济数据的最后推动。
•   澳洲通胀仍高企：上周三澳大利亚公布了11End of Month Seasonal AdjustmentCPI年率。数据表明通胀正在缓慢下降，但仍高于2%-3%目标区间。这意味着澳联储在今年大概率仍将按兵不动，或将2025年才会宽松政策。
  

technical analysis

Daily chart analysis

（澳元兑日元日线图，来源Ultima Markets MT4）

•   Random oscillation index：指标并未进入超买区域，同时发出空头信号，暗示当前多头继续上冲力量不足，市价随时可能下跌。
•   收敛区间：澳元兑日元自去年12month20日开始高位震荡，目前已经形成收敛三角形，同时下方也受到黑色65均线支撑。下方支撑强度高于上方阻力，受阻反弹概率较大。但若跌破支撑，则汇价将迎来较强下行趋势。
  

1Hour chart analysis

（澳元兑日元1Hour chart, sourceUltimaMarkets MT4）

•   Random oscillation index: Indicator in50中位线发出空头信号，当前短期空头占据上风，值得切换更小周期例如15分钟图，来观察是否存在入场做空的信号。
•   均线支撑被破坏：昨日澳元兑日元在绿色240周期均线上方持续徘徊调整，今日亚盘时段跌破均线后快速下跌，日内在没有触及下方支撑位前汇价偏空。
•   沃尔夫浪：值得注意的是，由于下方支撑位较多，整体趋势如图形成了沃尔夫浪结构。点是5是点1And points3的连接延长线。汇价在跌至点5价位附近后有一定概率反弹看向点4价位一带。
  

Trading CentralHub Line Indicators

（澳元兑日元30Minute chart, sourceUltimaMarkets APP）

•   according toUltima Markets APPInTrading CentralHub line indicators, central price range for the day97.36，
•   97.36Upward bullish, first goal97.73Second objective97.95
•   97.36Under bearish, first target96.57Second objective96.35
  

Disclaimers

The comments, news, research, analysis, pricing, and other information contained in this article can only be considered as general market information and are provided solely to assist readers in understanding the market situation and do not constitute investment advice.UltimaMarketsReasonable measures have been taken to ensure the accuracy of the data, but the accuracy of the data cannot be guaranteed and can be changed at any time without notice.UltimaMarketsWe will not be responsible for any losses or losses (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.