CPT MarketsUS inflation data is expected to bring a new test! European Central Bank officials hinted...

Today's Focus

today(01month11day)At the opening of the Asian market, the US and Japanese currencies fell, while other currencies generally rose; Gold price andcrude oilBoth are showing a downward trend.foreign exchangeAspect: The US dollar index fell to102.34； EUR/USD up to1.0973； The pound rose against the US dollar to1.2744； The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen to145.79； The US dollar fell to1.3379; The Australian dollar rose against the US dollar to0.6701。 In terms of precious metals:goldFalling to USD2027.00。 In terms of crude oil: Brent crude oil fell to76.58。

USD Index (DXY)：

After a slight fluctuation at the close of Wednesday, the US dollar index fell to102.34Nearby, the market has raised doubts about the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates early, with the focus mainly on the upcoming consumer price data to be released in the United States, which may reveal12The monthly inflation situation is still relatively high.

Market observers are gradually reducing their concerns about the potential impact of the Federal Reserve2024year3The expectation of starting interest rate cuts ahead of schedule. CME FedwatchThe data of the tool shows that the market has an impact on3Monthly interest rate reduction25The probability of one basis point has been reduced to the expected level63.6%A week ago, the expected value was69.6%. Federal Reserve officials have also expressed opposition to premature interest rate cuts. Atlanta Fed President Bostic Emphasize that he tends to maintain a tight stance on monetary policy in the short term. The market should focus on the Chairman of the New York Fed Williams The statement. Although the Federal Reserve has hinted at implementing interest rate cuts this year, it has not specified the timing of the cuts. So far, the central bank has adopted a data-driven interest rate reduction strategy. To be announced on ThursdayCPIThe data is expected to display12Monthly inflation has slightly increased. Given the sticky nature of current inflation and signs of labor market recovery, the Federal Reserve has greater room to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period of time.

In terms of yesterday's financial event data, the US Bureau of Business Statistics announced11The monthly wholesale inventory rate is as expected-0.2%The monthly sales rate has increased to0%A negative wholesale inventory indicates that retailers are purchasing more goods.

From the upward direction, the upper suppression(Upper resistance) 102.30，102.80； From the downward direction, the lower support101.90。

euro/pound (EURGBP)：

After a significant surge in the euro against the pound on Wednesday, it rose to0.8610Nearby, the daily chart shows bullish positions strengthening again, but the outlook is not yet clear.

Vice President of the European Central Bank, Lewis, commented that the eurozone economy may have fallen into recession last quarter, and its outlook looks weak, adding that soft indicators also show12The monthly economic contraction confirms the possibility of a technical recession in the second half of last year, and the recent outlook is weak. Regarding monetary policy, he supports the current interest rate level. On Monday, the European Central BankECBExecutive Board Members Schnabel The drop in unemployment rate to historical lows confirms that the labor market continues to maintain strong resilience, which is in line with2023year12The monthly employee forecast is basically consistent. When it comes to the issue of wage inflation, we continue to expect that this year's salary growth will gradually decline as the inflation rate decreases. In addition, the Bank of EnglandBOEDuring his testimony at the UK Finance Committee, Governor Bailey reiterated the importance of bringing the UK back to its inflation target and added that mortgage households in the UK are not as struggling as they were during the global financial crisis, and household income has increased in recent months.

Yesterday's financial event data was released by the French National Bureau of Statistics11The monthly output rate of industrial and manufacturing industries is generally higher than the previous period, reflecting an improvement in economic activity in the industrial and manufacturing industries. In addition, the Italian Bureau of StatisticsIstatpublish11The monthly retail sales rate has increased to1.5%And maintain in0.4%, showing an increase in market demand for retail goods.

From the upward direction, the upper suppression(Upper resistance) 0.8610，0.8660； From the downward direction, the lower support0.8570。

CPT MarketsRisk Tips and Disclaimers : The above article content is for reference only and is not intended as future investment advice.CPT Markets The articles published are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news as reference.