CPT Markets: USA12月非农就业报告强劲支撑美元！德国11month...

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last week01month01Rihe01month05日亚市盘面英美澳货币上涨，其他货币普遍下跌；金价下跌但crude oilShowing an upward trend.foreign exchangeAspect: The US dollar index has risen to102.46； The euro fell against the US dollar to1.0939； The pound rose against the US dollar to1.2720； The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen to144.74； The US dollar rose against the Canadian dollar to1.3364; The Australian dollar rose against the US dollar to0.6715。 In terms of precious metals:goldFalling to USD2043.71。 In terms of crude oil: Brent crude oil rose to78.75。

USD Index (DXY)：

美元指数上周五涨跌互现盘整在102.46Nearby, USA12月非农就业人数增加及同时薪资增幅皆超出市场预期，表明美国劳动力市场的表现好于预期，从而降低了市场对美联储今年迅速降息的预期。

非农数据的强劲表现，使得金融市场对美联储3月开始降息的预期发生动摇。目前，美联储3月降息的概率已降至53.8%，而在非农数据公布前为60.4%。此外，据CME美联储观察数据，美联储2Monthly interest rate maintained at5.25%-5.50%The probability of interval invariance is97.4%Interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is2.6%。 reach3The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is44.8%Accumulated interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is53.8%Accumulated interest rate reduction50The probability of a basis point is1.4%。

Last Friday, in terms of financial event data, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released12月非农就业人口变动比预期大幅上升至21.6万，私营企业和制造业分别上涨至16.4Wanhe0.6万，平均每小时工资年月率皆高于预期至4.1%and0.4%，失业率下降至3.7%，反映出整体劳动力就业市场有所提振成长。此外，美国供应商管理协会ISMpublish12Monthly non manufacturing industryPMIBelow expectations to50.6，显示出服务业活动有所萎缩。

From the upward direction, the upper suppression(Upper resistance) 102.40，102.80； From the downward direction, the lower support102.00。

euro/pound (EURGBP)：

欧元兑英镑上周五收盘小幅回落后，盘整在0.8600附近，欧元/英镑几乎收回了近期的获利，上周五欧洲时段在 0.8610 附近失守。欧元兑英镑失守，因德国 11 月零售销售数据显示德国零售业 11 月销售额下降。

市场预计将密切关注即将公布的欧元区消费者物价调和指数HICP初值数据。预计通胀数据可能会因基数效应而出现成长。这可能为欧洲央行ECB的决策者提供支持在较长时间内维持较高利率的空间。相对英镑可能因英国最近公布的信贷和住房数据而走高。周四，英国消费者信贷数据显示，11 月个人借贷从先前的 14.11 亿英镑（修正值为 12.89 亿英镑）上升至 20.05 亿英镑。周五，12 month Halifax 房价（月）季增 1.1%，前值成长 0.6%。英国黯淡的经济前景可能会拖累英镑。英国董事协会经济信心指数调查加重了这种担忧，调查显示英国董事对未来 12 个月英国经济前景的乐观程度持续下降。英国企业高层要求英国央行（BoE）尽快降低利率，为陷入困境的经济寻求支持。

Last Friday, in terms of financial event data, the German Federal Bureau of Statistics released11月实际零售销售年月率比预期大幅下跌至-2.4%and-2.5%，反映出市场对零售商品需求下降。在通胀数据方面，欧盟统计局EurostatAnnouncement of the Eurozone12Monthly harmonyCPI年月率高于前期至2.9%and0.2%，核心调和年月率分别为3.9%and0.3%。

From the upward direction, the upper suppression(Upper resistance) 0.8600，0.8640； From the downward direction, the lower support0.8570。

CPT MarketsRisk Tips and Disclaimers : The above article content is for reference only and is not intended as future investment advice.CPT Markets The articles published are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news as reference.