Ultima Markets：【行情分析】短期澳元仍处贬值，长期有望反转

todayUltimaMarkets Bringing you 2024year 1month 5Japanese Australian DollarIn depth analysis.

Fundamental points

• 政策差异：根据美国商品futuresTrading Committee（CFTC）的数据，对冲基金首次做多澳元。澳洲联储维持鹰派倾向，美联储则暗示明年将降息。澳洲联储2024年将降息两次，预计美联储将降息七次。
• 套息交易降温推动澳元：市场近期已反映降息预期，料未来3个月美元汇价将窄幅上落，未来6to12个月温和贬值。由于澳元、日元是套息交易主要的借贷货币，因此未来或成为美元走弱的主要受惠者。
  

technical analysis

Daily chart analysis

Daily chart of AUD/USD, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

• Random oscillation index：指标发出空头信号后，快线和慢线相继跌破50中位线。暗示空头占据上风，而快速下跌的行情或将不久进行短期调整。
• bareKstructure：汇价在昨日回踩红色7日均线后继续下跌，最终形成十字星结构，但是昨日收盘价并未跌破前期低点。这是裸K中的孕线结构，若汇价今日跌破昨日低点，则大概率将加速下跌。
  

1Hour chart analysis

AUD to USD1Hour chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

• Random oscillation index：指标在昨日超卖区域发出多头信号，汇价和指标随后上行。由于大周期仍然属于空头趋势，因此等待指标再度发出空头信号后可以关注做空机会。
• 旗形结构：澳元兑美元亚盘时段目前正旗形震荡，上方有黑色33周期均线和趋势线的压制，在没有突破上方结构前始终等待做空机会。
  

Trading CentralHub Line Indicators

AUD to USD30Minute chart, sourceUltima Markets APP）

• according toUltima Markets APPInTradingCentralHub line indicators, central price range for the day0.6725，
• 0.6725Upward bullish, first goal0.6740Second objective0.6760
• 0.6725Under bearish, first target0.6690Second objective0.6675
  

Disclaimers

The comments, news, research, analysis, pricing, and other information contained in this article can only be considered as general market information and are provided solely to assist readers in understanding the market situation and do not constitute investment advice.Ultima MarketsReasonable measures have been taken to ensure the accuracy of the data, but the accuracy of the data cannot be guaranteed and can be changed at any time without notice.UltimaMarketsWe will not be responsible for any losses or losses (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.