ATFXMarket: Chile11Monthly copper production decreased year-on-year3.1%，COMEXCopper attempts to break through4.0...

According to the Chilean Bureau of Statistics: Chile11The monthly copper production is444905Tons, year-on-year2022year11Of459229Ton reduction3.1%, month on month comparison10Of464311Ton reduction4.2%. Looking at the market situation,2023year11Month,COMEXCopper rise5.62%, highest touch3.8645The stock closed on the Changyang line for the entire month, after three consecutive months of decline.12In January, news of the closure of a giant copper mine in Panama boosted the situation,COMEXCopper continues its strong state, reaching its highest point3.974, distance4.000The checkpoint was only one step away, but ultimately failed to break through the key resistance. Over a longer period of time, since2022year3monthCOMEXCopper prices hit5.0395After reaching a historical high, copper prices have entered a downward trend, and the long-term moving average system has been arranged downwards. Although the absolute value of copper prices is still relatively high and inventory is relatively low, market participants should be prepared for the "big cycle of ups and downs".


From a technical perspective,COMEXCopper is in2023year11In the rebound phase since the beginning of the month, the latest band has crossed the blue regression line, and in the short term, bears dominate the market. The short-term moving average system is arranged upwards, but the difference between moving averages has significantly narrowed. Awesome Oscillator KDThe reading is in the median range, and previously formed a dead cross in the overbought zone, indicating that there is still room for continuation in the short-term downward band.MACDThe bar line of the indicator is above the zero axis, but the absolute value is extremely small, indicating that the market trend has a volatile characteristic, or the bar line is about to cross the zero axis. Overall, most indicators indicate a continuation of short-term decline, but due to the current low volatility, the decline may be very limited.
The mainstream market expectation is that the US macroeconomy will experience a recession in the first half of this year, and it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will announce a rate cut in the first quarter of this year. Under pessimistic expectations, bearish2024The demand for copper in the first half of the year. It should be noted that the production of copper mines is affected by many unexpected factors, such as mine closures, supply interruptions, and proactive production cuts. Weak demand does not necessarily lead to a decline in prices.

Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2024-01-02