Ultima MarketsMarket Review and Outlook: The US dollar is still under pressure, and the European Central Bank's policy...

Last week's review

2023年交易就在上周结束了。由于美联储的政策转向鸽派，金价在2023年最终以上涨结束。美元指数则是在第四季度迎来下跌，最终年跌幅超2%。而由于地缘政治紧张以及供需不平衡，crude oil终止了连续两年的上涨趋势，年跌幅约10%。假期期间日本发生7.4级地震，日元暂未有明显波动。

Market outlook

新年来临本周交易日少，日本东京证券交易所周二周三继续休市。作为1月份的第一个交易周，美国非农就业报告势将搅动市场。此外，投资者关注红海的地缘政治是否将会继续升级。在美国海军击沉3After carrying out armed small boats, Britain is considering launching airstrikes on the targets of the House armed forces. Be wary of this week's crude oil andgoldAbnormal fluctuations of.

美元仍承压

美联储将在北京时间周三凌晨公布12Minutes of the monthly monetary policy meeting.12月利率决议最终维持不变，同时委员们暗示将结束加息周期。同时点阵图显示2024Annual Meeting75个基点。市场关注在会议纪要中是否将提现更多细节。若明确今年美联储降息的时间点，则可能进一步打压美元。

美国劳动数据为交易主题

本周周三至周五，美国将公布一系列的劳动力数据，其中周四12monthADP就业人数和周五12月非农就业报告是市场关注重点。如果劳动力市场状况疲软，则通胀预期将继续下行，这将支撑美联储第一季度就开始降息的押注。

欧元区通胀道阻且长

周五欧元区将公布12monthCPI数据。欧元区目前对于货币政策持谨慎态度，在通胀没有明确朝着2%目标靠近前，欧央行货币政策很难转向。若12月通胀再度上涨，则欧央行货币政策在今年降息的步伐将远晚于美联储，届时欧元或将受到一定程度提振。

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