Ultima Markets：【市场热点】降息期待落空，人民币升势止步

美元兑离岸人民币汇率在中美货币政策分歧预期中达到高点，本周由于中国人民银行维持主要利率不变，人民币走弱，自六个月高点回落至7.13about.

具体而言，尽管人行进一步宽松政策的压力越来越大，但其仍将一年期和五年期贷款市场报价利率分别稳定在3.45%and4.2%。

中国经济在疫情封锁后复苏的过程中遇到了困难，通货紧缩力量和经济成长放缓引发降息和其他刺激政策的呼声。 然而，中国人行此次未采取任何行动，人民币因而兑其他货币贬值。

为使经济回复正轨，市场预期中国人行将在明年某个时点降息。分析师也建议人行可降低银行存款准备金，以确保金融体系流动性充裕。

先前由于投资人押注美联储在2024 年转向降息，而日本央行维持超宽松政策，人民币兑美元汇率迎来升势，本周人行按兵不动，为人民币的升值按下暂停。 中国和美国货币政策间的拔河将继续决定未来一年人民币的走势。

(美元兑人民币半年线图)

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