ATFXForeign exchange market: European Central Bank12The monthly interest rate resolution is coming, and the suspension of interest rate hikes may be firmly established

today21:15The European Central Bank will announce12The monthly interest rate resolution results, and the market generally expects that the main refinancing rate will be maintained4.5%不变，欧央行将年内第二次暂停加息。今日凌晨3:00公布的美联储利率决议显示，2024年降息三次的概率最高，欧央行同样面临暂停加息后市场预期纷纷转向降息的问题。由于欧元区存在俄罗斯和乌克兰问题的威胁，所以过去一年能源价格居高不下，高通胀影响因子一直存在，所以欧央行不敢过早地降息。正如欧央行行长拉加德所说，“通胀将在短期内将进一步下降，但能源价格在地缘政治因素下变得越来越不可预测”。10The interest rate resolution for the month announced the suspension of interest rate hikes for the first time this year.12There is significant uncertainty about whether the decision to suspend interest rate hikes will continue in the month. It should be noted that the unemployment rate in the eurozone is still high6.5%, much higher than5%The natural level of unemployment rate. Continuing to raise interest rates may lead to further increase in unemployment, so mainstream market expectations suggest that the European Central Bank will not hastily restart interest rate hikes.


From a technical perspective,EURUSD处于中期上涨趋势之中，近期出现阶段性回调，但已经在12month8日触底反弹。市价仍处于红色回归线下方，有进一步走高可能。上方目标位在1.1017前高附近。短期均线系统即将向上交叉，意味着回调阶段即将结束。震荡指标KD的读数处于中间区域，稍早前在超卖区形成金叉，意味着涨势仍有上行空间。MACD指标的柱线处于零轴之下，但绝对值不断缩小，一旦翻越零轴，重启涨势的状态便得到确认。

德国十年期国债收益率已经从9month28Of2.968%下降至当前的2.061%，法国的十年期国债收益率从10month18Of3.552%下降至当前的2.59%，意大利十年期国债收益率从10month18Of4.984%下降至当前的3.788%，西班牙十年期国债收益率从10month18Of4.054%下降至当前的3.045% 。综合来看，欧元区四大经济引擎的国债收益率都出现了大幅度下降，意味着债券市场对于未来欧央行降息已经有所预期。EURUSD之所以在降息预期下仍能上涨，主要是因为美元指数和美联储的影响性占主导。美联储降息预期所导致的“买欧元、卖美元”力量，远大于欧央行降息预期所导致的反向买卖。

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2023-12-14