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crude oil是通胀之母,当油价高企时,全球主要国家的通胀率都将大幅走高。依据同样的逻辑,我们可以认为原油是“通缩之母”,因为油价跌跌不休时,全球主要国家的通胀率又会大幅下降,最终出现经济衰退。9month27From now on,NYMEX原油价格从最高95.03美元下跌至最低67.92USD, cumulative decline28.5%,并且突破了70美元重要关口。供应端,OPEC在最近一次会议当中宣布减产22010000 barrels/日,俄罗斯也并未更改3010000 barrels/日的出口削减计划,所以原油的需求端并没有无序扩产。国际油价的下跌,大概率与需求端的萎缩有关。
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics,11monthCPIThe annual growth rate is-0.5%,物价涨幅不及预期,商品需求不振。预计人民银行将维持宽松货币政策,本月有望看到降准或者降息的操作。经济增长不及预期,会削弱市场对于原油需求端的预期,进而导致供应端的减产计划无法发挥作用,油价表现持续低迷。
From a technical perspective,NYMEX原油处于长期下跌趋势之中,9month28日至今没有出现过显著反弹,近期存在下跌加速迹象。短期均线系统仍呈现空头排列,MA5be inMA10下方。震荡指标KDThe reading is in the20超卖线之下,超卖区曾尝试一次向上交叉,但以失败告终,虽然后市存在反弹需求,但目前看来反弹不会很快到来。MACD指标的柱线处于零轴之下,且双线仍处于向下交叉状态,空头趋势稳固。
Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.