ATFX期市：黄金开启急涨急跌模式，何时能企稳反弹？

上周五公布的11The monthly non-agricultural employment report shows that there are new non-agricultural employment population19.9Ten thousand people, far higher than the previous value1510000 people and expected value18Ten thousand people, and the unemployment rate has also increased from3.9%Descend to3.7%，意味着美国宏观经济并没有因为高利率而出现显著衰退，反而劳动力市场的需求异常旺盛。受靓丽非农数据影响，10年期美债收益率当日冲高至4.2780%，意味着债市押注美联储加息的资金有所增加。加息预期驱动美指上涨0.35%，gold则反向大跌1.25%, lowest touch2010.6美元，以当周最高点2152.3计算，跌幅近150美金。债券市场的收益率倒挂问题依旧存在：三月期美债收益率5.44%，高于半年期美债收益率5.4%，意味着三个月至六个月之间，美联储将有可能出现降息动作。一旦降息预期重新升温，黄金将触底反弹。


From a technical perspective,COMEX黄金正处于中期多头趋势之中，但从上周开始，进入冲高后的回调阶段。MA20短期均线仍处于MA30长期均线上方，意味着多头趋势仍在延续。贯穿近期K线的红色线条为中枢线，它对于市价有牵引作用。上周的持续下跌正导致回归线的牵引作用不断增强，一旦未来出现底分形支撑结构，大概率将重启涨势。

全球宏观经济来看，今年三季度美国GDP增速年率3%，连续四个季度走高。三季度欧元区的GDP增速年率0%, lower than the previous value0.6%，且连续六个季度下降。三季度日本的GDP增速年率1.6%, lower than the previous value2%。综合来看，除美国经济前景较为良好外，其它国家的宏观经济均面临不同程度的下行压力。即便存在OPEC+everyday220万桶的减产计划和俄罗斯频繁鹰派发言的提振，国际油价仍呈跌势，意味着全球crude oil需求不振和经济复苏动能不足。东欧和中东正面临地缘问题，短期内看不到纷争结束的可能，动荡的局面会激发避险情绪。以上众多因素大部分都利多黄金，所以，从中长周期看，国际金价大概率仍将保持多头趋势。

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2023-12-11