IC Markets Global: Daily market analysis(2023-12-11)

Employment data drives the market higher

The Asian market is expected to open with a positive momentum today, as the strong employment data from the United States drove another round of gains on Wall Street last Friday. All three employment data are better than expected, and the unemployment rate has decreased0.2%, down to3.7%Consumer confidence has also risen, driving a dual boost in the stock market and the US dollar. The major indices performed well last week, with the Dow Jones closing higher0.36%S&P500The index has increased0.41%The Nasdaq index has grown again0.45%. After the data was released, the yield of US treasury bond bonds and the US dollar also rose, because the market expected that interest rates would be cut next year, and the price had corrected.10Yields on benchmark one-year treasury bond bonds rose12Basis points,2The one-year treasury bond bond rose15Basis points, while the US dollar index rose0.3%。

The cat in the pigeon of interest rate reduction

For many market participants, last Friday's non-farm employment data once again changed the situation, and they were happy to speculate before2024Interest rates will be lowered in the first quarter of the year. Market expectations have been consistently high65%Left and right, thinking that3The interest rate will be lowered in the month, but after the data was released last Friday, it has decreased to46%. Due to the recent significant increase in the stock market driven by expected interest rate cuts, many people were surprised by the positive data on Wall Street at the close. Traders are now looking forward to another crucial week of US interest rate expectations, which is crucialCPIThe data will be released, and this is also the climax before the last Federal Reserve meeting of this year. Jerome Powell and his team are unlikely to make any interest rate changes this week, but their statements in the statement and subsequent press conference may trigger strong market volatility.

Another calm Monday brings the beginning of this week

Due to the lack of exciting primary data or central bank updates on the macroeconomic calendar, traders expect another relatively calm Monday trading day today. Last Friday, the US employment data was better than expected, and the Asian market is expected to take the lead. The first two trading days today were very calm on the risk event calendar, although there is a possibility of releasing new loan data from China, which may cause further volatility in the Asian market.

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