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9month28From now on,WTI累计跌幅25.48%, lowest touch69.11美元,跌破重要整数关口70美元。上周,OPEC+刚刚达成减产协议:沙特将自愿减产石油10010000 barrels/日的政策延长至2024年一季度,阿联酋、伊拉克、科威特等产油国均给出明确减产份额。然而,总计220万桶的减产计划,并没有令油价止跌反弹。本月以来,WTI累计跌幅超8%,弱势格局延续。本周二,俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示:如果目前的行动还不够,OPEC+将采取额外措施,以避免投机行为和限制全球市场的波动。然而,在WTIfall drastically70美元之际,OPEC+集团并没有传出其它减产消息。
From a technical perspective,NYMEXcrude oil处于中期下跌趋势之中,且跌势有加速迹象。均线系统的MA20andMA30早已在10month16日形成死叉,目前两条均线没有任何向上交叉的迹象,意味着空头趋势较为稳固。震荡指标KD的读数处于超卖区间,但两者仍在探底,没有向上交叉迹象,短期跌势延续。
库存方面,美国至12month1Day and WeekEIAReduction in crude oil inventory463.3Ten thousand barrels, the previous value is an increase161Ten thousand barrels, expected decrease135.4万桶。美国总体库存水平有所增加,同样表明当前的需求无法完全消化供应端产量。除非OPEC+或者俄罗斯出台更加严厉的减产措施,不然供需失衡的局面难有改观。
Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.