ATFXpolular science:2004The three interest rate hikes since the beginning of the year have had an impact on gold, US indices, and US stocks...

2004Since the beginning of this year, the Federal Reserve has conducted three interest rate hike cycles, with corresponding start and end time periods as follows:


The first wave of interest rate hikes: start time2004-07Federal Funds Rate1%; End time2006-07Federal Funds Rate5.25%Total interest rate increase425Base point. Logically, raising interest rates will help the US dollar index rise, and sustained rate hikes will lead to the US dollar index entering a strong cycle. However, during the three-year interest rate hike, the US dollar index has accumulated a decline3.94%, lowest touch80.42点。美元指数的下跌，与我们的统计周期有莫大关系。在美联储加息的初期，美元指数往往仍处于惯性下跌之中，只有加息次数超出预期之后，才能够对美元指数形成显著提振。2004year12月份开始，美元指数开启强势上涨，直至2004year11月，累计涨幅达到14.65%。美联储加息，意味着宏观经济存在过热迹象，道琼斯指数上涨符合逻辑。比较奇怪的是，gold在美联储激进加息期间，竟然出现了61.37%的巨大涨幅。2003year3month20日，美国以伊拉克藏有大规模杀伤性武器并暗中支持恐怖分子为由，绕开联合国安理会，单方面对伊拉克实施军事打击。第二次海湾战争导致国际油价接近翻一倍。正是因为地缘问题在2004Year to2007年频发，黄金才能实现超预期涨势。

第二轮加息潮： start time2016-01Federal Funds Rate0.25%; End time2019-01Federal Funds Rate2.5%Total interest rate increase225基点。这一轮加息潮幅度较小，时间跨度大。起因是美国的通胀率出现一定程度反弹，最高触及2.9%，耶伦掌舵的美联储认为美国经济存在过热风险，故而开启加息。实际上，加息之后没多久，美国的通胀率就迅猛下降，至2020year5月份时跌至0.1%。由于加息过于温和，美元指数出现了3.12%的跌幅。黄金在这段时间里主要维持震荡走势。道琼斯指数大幅走高，主要是乐观的经济预期刺激了资金入市。

第三轮加息潮： start time2022-03Federal Funds Rate0.25%; End time2023-08Federal Funds Rate5.5%Total interest rate increase525基点。这段时间，美元指数大涨7.17%，符合逻辑。黄金先大跌后大涨，整体波动幅度不大。道琼斯指数维持宽幅震荡态势。本轮加息期间，出现了俄乌冲突、巴以冲突等地缘问题，所以黄金的走势比较复杂。加息初期，市场人士对于疫情是否完全消退仍存有疑虑，所以悲观情绪占上风，致使道琼斯指数大跌。2023年开始，市场的悲观情绪有所消解，故而驱动道琼斯指数大涨。最终，道琼斯指数呈现出宽幅震荡态势。

综合来看，加息潮对黄金、美指、美股的影响性并不一致，需要纳入更多影响因子，才能够确定三大类资产的趋势方向。

Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-12-01