ATFXForeign exchange market: Eurozone11monthCPISudden drop to2.4%, USA10Monthly CorePCEFallback to3.5%

According to Eurostat data, the Eurozone11monthCPIAnnual rate initial value2.4%, much lower than the previous value2.9%, lower than expected2.7%, distance2%The long-term regulatory goals are further advanced, and the problem of high inflation is significantly alleviated. The European Central Bank10Announced the suspension of interest rate hikes in the monthly interest rate resolution, maintaining4.5%The benchmark interest rate remains unchanged, and the significantly improved inflation rate has had a substantial impact on monetary policy. stayCPIAssuming there are no unexpected changes in the data, it is expected that the European Central Bank will shift from suspending interest rate hikes to stopping interest rate hikes in the long term.


From a technical perspective,EURUSD中期趋势已经由空转多，临界点出现在11month2dayMA20短期均线上穿MA30均线。市价运行于上升通道之内，与下轨之间的距离即为回落空间。震荡指标KD的读数处于超买区间，且快线慢已经向下交叉，回调需求较高。振幅指标ATR读数0.0032，日均波动幅度32基点，处于月底中低区域，止损区间可适当压缩。

According to data from the US Department of Commerce, the United States10Monthly CorePCEAnnual rate of price index3.5%Compared to previous values3.7%decline0.2个百分点，与预期值持平。PCE数据经常在美联储利率决议中被讨论，当同比数值下降时，意味着高通胀问题缓解，紧缩货币政策取得了显著效果。美联储已经连续两期暂停加息，预计12month13日的决议仍将维持暂停加息状态。


技术角度看，美元指数仍处于中期空头趋势之中，昨日意外大涨，主要是受到了通道下轨的支撑作用。反弹的短期目标位是下降通道中轨，中期目标位是下降通道上轨。震荡指标KD的读数处于超卖区，快慢线即将向上交叉，同样支持美元指数的反弹判定。需要提醒的是，核心PCE数据下降逻辑上对美元指数形成利空冲击，美指昨日的大涨与数据面不符合，可能导致反弹持续性较差。

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2023-12-01