ATFXFutures Market:OPEC+Is there a delay in the meeting, or is there a unilateral production reduction agreement or change in Saudi Arabia?

View All · Published on 2023-11-23 17:57:07

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according toOPEC官网消息，原定于2023year11month25Rihe26日举行的第187届欧佩克会议、第51届联合部长级监测委员会会议和第36sessionOPEC+部长级会议已被重新安排到30日举行。网站并未透露会议推迟的原因，但有一种说法认为：沙特对其他成员国的石油产量水平感到不满，导致谈判陷入困境。由于沙特正在执行10010000 barrels/日的减产计划，市场猜测会议推迟将导致扩大减产规模的预期落空。消息公布后，NYMEXcrude oil分钟级别连续大跌，半小时内市价从76.71The US dollar fell to75.81USD.
ATFXFutures Market:OPEC+Is there a delay in the meeting, or is there a unilateral production reduction agreement or change in Saudi Arabia?345 / author:atfx2019 / PostsID:1726877

ATFXFutures Market:OPEC+Is there a delay in the meeting, or is there a unilateral production reduction agreement or change in Saudi Arabia?345 / author:atfx2019 / PostsID:1726877

From a technical perspective,NYMEX原油处于中期空头趋势下的加速下跌阶段，11month16日市价触及通道下轨，短线有反弹迹象。10month12Solstice20日的上涨，在触及MA30中期均线之后遇阻回落，形成回踩确认结构，意味着当前的下跌走势已经成为主流趋势。震荡指标KD的读数处于中间偏下水平，一旦进入超卖区域，有可能触发小规模反弹。综合来看，NYMEX的跌势已定，虽然可能会出现反弹走势，但预计突破下降通道上轨的可能性不大。
ATFXFutures Market:OPEC+Is there a delay in the meeting, or is there a unilateral production reduction agreement or change in Saudi Arabia?65 / author:atfx2019 / PostsID:1726877

ATFXFutures Market:OPEC+Is there a delay in the meeting, or is there a unilateral production reduction agreement or change in Saudi Arabia?65 / author:atfx2019 / PostsID:1726877

Looking at inventory data,2014年以后库欣地区的原油库存最低点维持在2000万桶附近，今年10month13日当周，最新库存数据达到2101.3万桶，逼近历史低位。随后数周，原油库存开始反弹，曲线有明显翘尾迹象。国际油价也在这段时间出现明显回落：9month28From now on,NYMEX原油累计跌幅达到18.49%，期间最低点触及72.16美元。随着库存曲线继续上行，国际油价大概率保持主流空头趋势。

Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-11-23