Hawkish Powell drives the US dollar up - euro/USD, USD/Japanese yen, gold

USD forecast – euro/USD, USD/Japanese yen, Australian dollar/USDgold

• with DXY The US dollar measured by the index rose due to the soaring US bond yields
• Powell's hawkish remarks reinforced the rise of the US dollar
• This article examines the euro from a technical perspective/USD, USD/Japanese yen, Australian dollar/Analyze the key levels that need to be monitored in the next few days based on the prices of the US dollar and gold
  
  

The tone of the US dollar was low at the beginning of the trading, but after the demand for US government bonds in the auction of important treasury bond bonds was low, the yield soared, pushing the US dollar to rebound in afternoon trading. Subsequently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks at a panel meeting organized by the International Monetary Fund strengthened the upward momentum of the US dollar.

Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC)The chairman stated in a public speech that policymakers have taken sufficient restrictive positions to continue restoring inflation rates to2.0%I have no confidence in my goal. He also stated that further progress in cooling price pressures cannot be guaranteed, and stronger growth may require higher interest rates. Ultimately,DXY The index rose nearly on the same day 0.4%。

In summary, Powell's remarks indicate that the central bank is not100%I believe the interest rate hike cycle has ended. This may mean another interest rate hike next month or January, especially if the financial situation continues to ease, as has been the case since the end of October (technology stocks have been bullish, ignoring today's performance).

At present, the expectation is still in a constantly changing state, and emotions will change with the strength of data release. Therefore, traders must closely monitor the upcoming days and weeksEconomic calendar. Nevertheless, an important report worth noting is the one to be released next Tuesday 10 Monthly Consumer Price Index Survey.

Analysts predict that after seasonal adjustments, the overall performance of the previous month CPI Expected increase 0.1%The annual rate has increased since then 3.7% lower 3.3%. Expected monthly increase in core indicators 0.3%The annual reading is 4.3%, and 9 The month remains unchanged.

Due to the Federal Reserve's high sensitivity to upcoming information and concerns about inflation risks, any upward deviation between official data and consensus expectations will drive up bond yields and strengthen the rationale for long-term interest rate hikes. This situation is beneficial for the US dollar, but for gold and the euroThe Australian dollar and Japanese yen are unfavorable.

euro/Technical Analysis of USD

When encounteringFibonacci resistance level1.0765After the rejection, the euro/The US dollar has experienced a rapid correction, and currently the exchange rate is hovering at the lower limit of the support range1.0650. Bulls must defend this bottom at all costs - otherwise it may cause the currency pair to falter and push prices towards trend line support1.0555. If further softening occurs, it is possible to retest 2023 Annual low point.

If the market turns and emotional fluctuations favor bulls, the first noteworthy technical obstacle will appear 1.0765, of which 200 Daily Simple Moving Average and 7 month/10 Falling under the moon 38.2% Fibonacci's pullback is consistent. Overcoming the convergence of key levels may enhance the bullish outlook for moving towards 1.0840 Pave the road.

euro/USD technical chart

dollar/Technical Analysis of Japanese Yen

dollar/Japanese yenLast week, there was a pullback, but the upward momentum was re established, breaking through 150.90 The important upper limit, and rushing towards it 2022 Year and 2023 Annual high point, slightly below the psychological threshold 152.00. As prices rise and approach important technology zones, traders should act with caution as Tokyo may intervene at any time to curb speculative activity and prevent further depreciation of the yen.

If the Japanese authorities carry outforeign exchangeIntervention, USD/The Japanese yen may quickly fall below150.90And falling towards149.00Gateway. If further softening occurs, the focus will shift towards 147.25, followed by 146.00. If Tokyo does not intervene in the currency market and allows the exchange rate to rise 152.00 Above, there is a possibility of rebounding to the upper limit of the medium-term upward channel 153.40。

dollar/Japanese yen technical chart

AUD/Technical Analysis of USD

AUD/The US dollar fell for the fourth consecutive trading day on Thursday, erasing all the gains accumulated since the bull market broke through last week. The results proved thatThis is a fake breakthrough. After this pullback, the currency pair has arrived0.6350Important support points nearby. The integrity at the regional level is crucial; If this level is not maintained, it may lead to a downward trend 0.6325. If further weakness occurs, it may once again hit this year's low point.

Despite recent setbacks in the Australian dollar, the bullish outlook should not be completely ignored. That is to say, if the bulls make a comeback and trigger the current horizontal rebound, the resistance level above will appear 0.6400 Nearby, then 0.6460. Successfully overcoming this technical obstacle may reignite the bullish trend, leading to a rebound 11 Monthly high point 0.6500 Open the gate nearby.

AUD/USD technical chart

Analysis of Gold Technology

Earlier this week, when the bulls failed to break through 2,010 dollar/2,015 When the key upper limit of the US dollar region is reached, gold prices reverse and fall. However,XAU/The US dollar started to rise after this setback, and before a slight rebound in price, it 200 Encountered support near the daily simple moving average. If the increase in future trading days accelerates, the initial resistance level will appear at 1,980 USD, followed by 2,010 dollar/2,015 USD.

On the contrary, if the seller returns and regains the upper hand in the financial market, the first level position to be monitored is 1,945 USD, this position is related to 200 The daily moving average is consistent. Although gold prices may establish a foothold in the region during a pullback, if they fall below, they may fall towards 1,920 US dollars. Below this area, focus turns 1,900 USD.

Gold price trend chart（futuresContract)