ATFXForeign exchange market: Former ECB President Draghi stated that the eurozone will enter a recession by the end of the year

The expectation of economic recession is heating up again.11month8At a meeting in Brussels, former ECB President Lagarde said, "It is almost certain that we will fall into a recession before the end of the year. The starting point of this recession is very high - we have never had such a low unemployment rate before, so we may fall into a recession, but this may not disrupt stability." Lagarde's speech hit the nail on the head, stating that the eurozone's macroeconomy cannot remain prosperous at such high benchmark interest rates.10Month EurozoneCPIThe annual rate is only2.9%, already continuous7The monthly decline has not only solved the problem of high inflation, but there is even a possibility of falling into low inflation. Monthly decline0.4Calculated at a rate of one percentage point, the inflation rate in the eurozone will fall below three months later2%The medium-term goal is that the European Central Bank may have to initiate interest rate cuts to boost the economy. The stock market is extremely sensitive to monetary policy adjustments, and excessive tightening policies will make market expectations increasingly pessimistic. European Stoke50The stock index varies from8The month began to decline, with a cumulative decline of nearly three months10%This is evidence that high interest rates have damaged stock market confidence and economic growth potential.


From a technical perspective, European Stoke50The index is in a rebound stage under a bearish trend,11month3Starting from the beginning of the day, the market price on the downward channel is on the online track, showing an excessive increase, and there is a driving force to return to the internal channel. However,MA30Forming support for the current rebound band, oscillating indicatorsKDThe reading is in the middle area, and there is still some distance from the overbought area. It is expected that the rebound phase can continue for some time. Upper resistance levelR1by10month12Daily high point4234Point, the distance from the market price is strong, and it may touch this week. Next resistance levelR2by9month15Daily high point4326.9Points.

eurozoneGDPgross value14Trillion US dollars, with Germany contributing4Trillion US dollars, contributed by France2.8Trillion US dollars, contributed by Italy2Trillion US dollars, contributed by Spain1.4Trillion dollars, all four of themGDPComprehensive occupation of the EurozoneGDPof72.8%. Remaining in the Eurozone16Of countriesGDPNone of them were able to exceed1Trillion dollars has a relatively small impact on the Eurozone economy. Among the four countries, Italy has the lowest inflation rate, only1.78%，9Of the monthCPIThe annual rate was once as high as5.34%，10The month is already in a state of low inflation; France has the highest inflation rate, but it is only4%, higher than2%The range of inflation targets is limited. So, from the overall data of the eurozone, an economic recession seems to be far away, but distinguishing countries within the eurozone, an economic recession may, as Draghi said, "almost certainly fall into recession by the end of the year.".

Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-11-09