ATFXForeign exchange market: The Bank of England maintains its benchmark interest rate unchanged, marking the end of the "US, Europe, and UK" period...

Bank of England11On the monthly interest rate resolution, the Monetary Policy Committee 6 Ticket pair 3 The majority vote decided to maintain the bank interest rate at 5.25%The reason is that the central bank believes that the UK GDP stay 2023 The third quarter of this year will remain stable, weaker than 8 The forecast in the monthly report, in addition, some business surveys show that output will slightly shrink in the fourth quarter. The policy statement holds a pessimistic attitude towards the future direction of the UK's macroeconomy and takes a dovish stance. Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that it is still too early to consider a rate cut and is observing whether further rate hikes are needed, which may require a longer period of "restrictive" policies. Overall, the Bank of England recognizes that high interest rates may harm potential economic growth, and the purpose of suspending interest rate hikes is to observe changes in economic data for the third and fourth quarters. From Bailey's speech, it can be seen that interest rate cuts are still not within his scope of consideration, and a high interest rate environment is expected to be maintained for a long time, with an overall attitude towards the hardliners. After the announcement of the resolution results,GBPUSDFrom within five minutes1.2195Up to1.2216The highest daily hit1.2226Point, setting a new high in nearly seven trading days.


From a technical perspective,GBPUSDIn the rebound stage under a long-term bearish trend, the rebound band ranges from10month4It has been a month since the beginning of the day, and the overall trend shows a convergent triangular structure. The market price has reached the breakthrough point of the triangle structure, and yesterday's bullish line pushed the closing price higher beyond the upper edge of the triangle, showing signs of upward breakthrough. If the closing price of the next two trading days is outside the upper limit, an effective breakthrough is formed, and the next resistance level isR1Location. Awesome Oscillator KDThe reading is in the middle area, which means it is from10month5The oversold gold cross formed by the day still plays a supportive role in the market, and there is still enough upward space for a rebound in the market.

From a fundamental perspective, the UK9monthCPIthe annual rate6.7%Compared to other developed countries, the problem of high inflation remains very severe. unemployment rate4.3%Due to the natural unemployment rate standard, there is strong demand in the labor market.GDPAnnual growth rate0.6%Far below5.25%The benchmark interest rate, high interest rates will have a serious inhibitory effect on the macroeconomy. The proportion of UK government debtGDPThe specific gravity reaches100.6%At a relatively high level, there is a higher likelihood of debt repayment issues. Manufacturing and service industriesPMIThe readings are respectively44.8/49.2Below50There are signs of continuous contraction in the manufacturing and service industries along the boom and bust line. The current account has been in a long-term deficit, and the export industry is sluggish. Overall, the economic fundamentals of the UK are average and cannot provide a sustained boost to the value of the pound,GBPUSDLong term bearish trends may be difficult to change in the short term.

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-11-03