Bank of Japan stands idly by, US dollar/Japanese yen and Euro/Prediction of Japanese yen trend

The Bank of Japan maintains a negative interest rate policy and only slightly adjusts the yield curve control policy（YCC）In addition, there are reports that the Bank of Japan has not intervened in the foreign exchange market recently, which has led to a significant depreciation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar and the euro; In terms of technology, the US dollar/The upward trend of the Japanese yen is evident, while the euro/Pay attention to whether the yen can clear short-term trend resistance.

The Bank of Japan remains calm, causing the yen to weaken significantly

Tuesday（10month31During trading hours, after the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision, the Japanese yen fell sharply against the US dollar and the euro. As of the close, the US dollar/The rise of the Japanese yen1.75%to151.66, since last year10The highest level since the beginning of the month; Euro/The rise of the Japanese yen1.32%to160.29, refresh15A new high in the past year.

The Bank of Japan maintains its benchmark interest rate at-0.10%Unchanged, but with increased yield curve control policy（YCC）Flexibility, which allows for10The yield of annual Japanese bonds has risen to1%Above. The Bank of Japan will only use this level as a reference in the future, rather than the previous hard cap, and also stated that it will continue to purchase bonds on a large scale and engage in flexible market operations.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated at a press conference that the yield curve control policy will be implemented until the inflation target is achieved（YCC）The negative interest rate policy will continue to be implemented, and it is still uncertain which policy will end first. Although the Bank of Japan has adjustedYCCThe flexibility of the Japanese yen was reduced, but this measure fell short of market expectations, leading to a rapid decline in the yen.

In addition, some traders previously believed that the Bank of Japan may have intervened earlier this month, but there were reports yesterday that the Bank of Japan has not taken any measures recently, which has exacerbated the decline of the yen. This means that a few weeks ago, the US dollar/Japanese yen touched150The drastic fluctuations at the checkpoint are likely caused by algorithmic trading.

Overall, as the Bank of Japan is not yet ready to fully withdraw from ultra loose monetary policy, and the Japanese government has not taken too many measures to curb the depreciation of the yen, speculative sentiment may continue to push the US dollar in the short term/Japanese yen and Euro/The Japanese yen has risen.

dollar/Technical analysis of Japanese yen: bullish

On the daily chart, in US dollars/The Japanese yen has already broken through151At the critical juncture, we have achieved over12The highest level in the past month, with a clear upward trend, is expected to test further upward in the short term to test the upward trajectory of the upward channel（152.85）. In terms of downtrend, direct support is located at150.95If it falls below this level, it will open up a downward trend in the future market148.90The space.

dollar/Japanese yen daily trend chart

Chart source:TradingView

euro/Technical analysis of Japanese yen: Focus on whether it can break through the short-term trend resistance line

On the daily chart, compared to the US dollar/Similar Japanese yen, Euro/The Japanese yen also saw a significant strengthening breakthrough160Pass, set a new record15The highest level in years, currently testing trend line resistance（161）If this resistance can be eliminated, the future market is expected to further rise162.80. On the other hand, if prices fall, support may be located159.70Breaking through the region, market focus will shift towards156.65and154.50。

euro/Japanese yen daily trend chart

Chart source:TradingVIew