ATFXCurrency: United States9monthPCEData attack, high inflation issues may no longer pose a threat

today20:30The US Department of Commerce will announce9Monthly CorePCEAnnual rate of price index, previous value is3.9%Financial institutions are expected to3.7%It is expected that there will be a slight decrease. corePCEData and CoreCPIThe trend resonance of data is strong,9Monthly CoreCPIData display, latest value4.1%, lower than the previous value4.3%, which is consistent with the expected value. Based on this judgment, the corePCEThe data will fluctuate in the same direction, and financial institutions have a high probability of achieving it. Although thatPCE数据的统计方法更合理，但其发布的时间往往在每月的下旬，滞后性太强，所以，从短期来看，PCE数据对金融市场的影响性往往不及CPI数据；从长周期来看，PCE数据对美联储货币政策的指引作用要强于CPI数据。如果两者走势出现背离，应当以PCE数据表为准。


昨日美国商务部公布的数据显示，美国第三季度实际GDP年化季环比初值按年增长4.9%，远远高于前值2.1%Exceeding market expectations4.3%，创出近两年以来的最快增速。强劲的GDP数据显示出美国宏观经济的强大韧性和内驱力，即便CPI数据连续下降，美联储仍有可能保持紧缩货币政策以遏制潜在的经济过热问题。

技术角度看，美元指数仍处于显著的多头趋势之中，MA30依旧是有力支撑线，预计11月份有可能上破107.35Gateway.10month23日长阴线跌破MA30，隔天长阳线重新将市价拉回MA30上方，显示出强大的买入力量。震荡指标KD的读出处于中间区域，距离超卖区仍有一段距离，提示回调走势仍未结束，市价上破今年高点107.35之前可能还会出现回落走势。

欧元区的CPI数据也在不断下降，高通胀问题同样出现实质性缓解。昨日欧央行利率决议宣布维持主要再融资利率、存款便利利率、边际贷款利率维持在4.5%，4%as well as4.75%在前值水平不变。暂停加息后，欧元区的利率水平相比美元区并没有显著优势，不会导致美元资金向欧元区流动，欧元对美元升值的难度较大。另外，俄乌冲突一直对欧元区的经济前景构成负面冲击，因欧元而导致美元指数大跌的可能性并不高。

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-10-27