ATFXForeign exchange market: Can the European Central Bank's interest rate decision reverse the decline of the euro?

today20:15Announced by the European Central Bank10As a result of the monthly interest rate resolution, financial institutions generally expect the European Central Bank to remain silent. to10month26The pre value of the main refinancing rate of the European Central Bank in Japan is4.5%The expected value remains unchanged. On the same day20:45European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde held a press conference on monetary policy, focusing on Lagarde's views on the inflation rate, unemployment rate, Russia-Ukraine conflict and international oil prices in the euro area. Eurozone9monthCPIthe annual rate4.3%For six consecutive months of decline and reaching a new low for the year, the problem of high pollution has been greatly alleviated. Officials within the European Central Bank who support interest rate hikes believe that although inflation rates continue to decline, absolute values are still far higher than long-term regulatory targets2%The purpose of tightening monetary policy has not yet been truly achieved. Officials within the European Central Bank who oppose interest rate hikes believe that the inflation rate2%Although the target has not been achieved, the downward trend is already very clear. If interest rates continue to be raised, it may lead to an economic recession. ECB President Lagarde said in a speech today, "For now, I believe we are moving towards an inflation rate return."2%"The direction of progress" means that Lagarde tends to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged, giving more time for economic data to reflect.


From a technical perspective,EURUSDStill in a significant bearish trend,MA30The moving average has always played a protective role in the downward trend.10month4Starting to rebound,10month23Breakthrough of daily long bullish lineMA30Suppressed, showing signs of excessive idle, but the next day a long bearish candlestick appeared, erasing all the breakthrough effects achieved by the bullish candlestick. The subsequent two consecutive small bearish candlesticks pulled the market price backMA30Below, it is expected that this round of rebound will fail, which may lead to a new low. Awesome Oscillator KDThe reading is in the middle area,8month29Solstice10month4Day, continuously forming oversold intervalsgoldThe crossover provided sufficient preparation for the subsequent rebound, but the final rebound still fell short of expectations. Overall, most technical indicators point toEURUSDShort positions continue.

There is no unified bond market in the eurozone, and interest rate trends can be determined by observing the bond trends of Germany, France, and Italy. The yield of German 10-year treasury bond is still rising in the medium term, but there has been a significant correction recently. The expectation of interest rate increase is still on, but not as strong as before. The yield trend of France's 10-year treasury bond bonds is basically similar to that of Germany, but the rising trend is more clear, and the interest rate increase is still expected. The trend of Italian 10-year treasury bond bonds is similar to that of Germany and France, and the upward trend is the clearest among the three. The interest rate increase is still expected. Overall, Germany, France, and Italy still have expectations for the European Central Bank to raise interest rates in the medium to long term, and there is significant uncertainty about whether to raise rates in the short term. In addition, the continuously rising bond market interest rates have a supportive effect on the value of the euro.

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-10-26