Ultima Markets【 Market Analysis 】 The long and short positions of the Canadian dollar are unknown, and the forward-looking guidance of the Central Bank of Canada...

todayUltimaMarketsBringing you 2023 year 10 month 25USD/CADIn depth analysis.

Fundamental points

•         The probability of interest rate hikes in Canada is lowThe weak retail sales data in Canada suggests that Canada's tightening monetary policy has taken effect, and the Bank of Canada is likely to maintain overnight interest rates tonight5.00%unchanged.
•         Canada even faces pressure to cut interest ratesPreviously in the third quarter of CanadaGDPThe annual rate will only increase0.2%, far below the growth forecast by the Bank of Canada1.5%. The central bank of China has lowered interest rates to alleviate the economic downturn. Market expectations2024By the end of the second quarter of this year, the overnight interest rate will be reduced to4.75%Or lower.
•         Follow the forward-looking guidance of Canada's central bankThe interest rate path of the Bank of Canada for the year is basically clear, with a focus on the Bank of Canada's2024If there is a hawkish attitude towards the forecast of the economy and interest rate levels for the year, be wary of the appreciation trend of the Canadian dollar tonight, and vice versa.
•         Oil prices drive the depreciation of the Canadian dollar：crude oilAfter the risk aversion gradually subsided, prices experienced a rapid decline, causing significant depreciation pressure on the Canadian dollar. If oil prices continue to decline, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar may continue to rise.
  

technical analysis

Daily chart analysis

Daily chart of US dollar to Canadian dollar, sourceUltimaMarkets MT4）

•         Random oscillation indexAlthough the fast line once again surpassed the slow line yesterday, since10Since mid month, the overall fluctuation of the indicators has been relatively volatile, and the current upward trend is more like an adjustment trend, which needs to wait for the exchange rate to break through the key price level for confirmation.
•         KLine structure：10month5The three consecutive candlestick lines starting from the beginning of the day are a clear downward trend in recent times, so even if the market is rising in the short term, as long as it does not break through10month5The high points of the sunrise shadow cannot be considered as bulls approaching.
  

4Hour chart analysis

USD to CAD4Hour chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

•        Wolf wave structure: From10month10The upward trend in recent days has been quite volatile, and the market trend is currently forming a typical Wolf wave structure. Waiting point5Touching the extension line above or falling below the point3If there is a clear bearish candlestick line, there is a high probability that the market will emerge from a bearish trend.
•        Elliott Wave Theory ：10month5The rapid decline in recent days is a5The downward movement of wave structure drives waves.10month10The recent rise has been temporarily judged as a structural adjustment due to fluctuations, with only a breakthrough in the market trend1.37851Only then can we confirm that the downward driving wave structure is incorrect.
•        Fibonacci retreatThe market has broken through the downward trend78.6%Retreat position, there was a retracement during yesterday's US trading session. There is a certain probability that the exchange rate will rise. If there is a clear bearish candle structure, the market may rapidly decline.
  

Hub Line Indicators

USD to CAD1Hour chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

•         according toUltima Markets MT4InpivotIndicator, daily central price level1.37193，
•         1.37193Upward bullish, first goal1.37765Second objective1.38129
•         1.37193Under bearish, first target1.36833Second objective1.36255
  

Disclaimers

The comments, news, research, analysis, pricing, and other information contained in this article can only be considered as general market information and are provided solely to assist readers in understanding the market situation and do not constitute investment advice.Ultima MarketsReasonable measures have been taken to ensure the accuracy of the data, but the accuracy of the data cannot be guaranteed and can be changed at any time without notice.UltimaMarketsWe will not be responsible for any losses or losses (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.