The "Big Seven" Pushes the Dominant Position of US Stocks to New Heights

Seven major technology companies in the United States have achieved success this yearMSCI ACWIAll increase in price.

Apple, MicrosoftMetaAmazonAlphabetNvidia and Tesla are known as the "Big Seven"

Seven major technology companies in the United States have achieved all the gains in global stock markets this year, pushing the country's dominant position in the stock market to a new height.

Due to investors being excited about the development of artificial intelligence, the so-called "seven giants" - Apple(Apple)Microsoft(Microsoft)、MetaAmazon(Amazon)、AlphabetNvidia(Nvidia)And Tesla(Tesla)——For most of this year, it has been supporting Standard&Poor's, a group of American blue chip companies500index(S&P 500)。

This trend has become so extreme that it dominates foreign markets. Bloomberg data shows that without these seven companies,MSCIBenchmarkAll-Country World IndexNearly covered3000Large and medium-sized enterprises may experience a decline so far this year.

2023In the year, the market value of these seven companies increased by nearly4Trillions of dollars, andMSCIThe overall increase in the index is3.4Trillion dollars. They have added a total of to the index40Points, and the overall index has risen37Points.

Unless in12There will be a huge turning point before the month, otherwise2023The year will be the past10The largest increase in the share of the United States in global market value this year8A year ago.

Currently, American companies in this60In the trillion dollar index61%, and10A year ago, this proportion was less than50%. The largest10Only the constituent stocks account for nearly19%, higher than2013Of8%。


Global stock markets have started well this year, but have been losing momentum in recent months due to concerns about interest rates and geopolitical risks.

The rise of the US stock market this year has shattered investor expectations, as they believed that low valuations would help other global markets catch up with the US stock market.

Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions(Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions)Max Goldman, Head of Investment Strategy(Max Gokhman)He said, "There have been great investors in the history of the market who have fallen due to simple value traps. When we compare the United States to other countries in the world, I believe there is a reason why the United States has long been a better performing asset class."

There is almost no disagreement about whether the US stock market appears expensive compared to other parts of the world. JPMorgan Asset Management (JPMorgan Asset Management)According to data, S&P500Index Future12The P/E ratio of expected monthly earnings is approximately18Times, andMSCIThe P/E ratio of stocks in all countries except for the US stock market is12Times.


The question is whether there are realistic triggers to change the status quo.

Fuda(Fidelity)Global Macro Director Yulon Timmer(Jurrien Timmer)Represent:“(Non US stocks)The valuation is very attractive... but being cheap doesn't necessarily mean it will perform better

At the same time, he added that large technology stocks "may have greater upside potential" as there is currently no clear catalyst to reverse their trend. Some of these companies have been hit by the recent rise in US treasury bond bond yields, but on average, they have performed better than the overall market.

One sign of continued strong investor interest is that,ChatGPTBehind the scenes, the US private holding groupOpenAIWe have been discussing the sale of stocks with investors, which will lead to a valuation of approximately860Billion dollars, yes4Monthly valuation3Times.


Franklin Templeton's Gockman said that if these seven companies cannot derive sufficient tangible benefits from the growth of artificial intelligence, they may face pressure next year. But he added that even if enthusiasm for artificial intelligence weakens, as interest rates begin to decline, growth stocks(It is much more common in the United States)It will also benefit.

If we believe that interest rates will rise from now on, it will be detrimental to the United States, but if we have already exceeded or approached the peak(Most people would agree with this point)"A decrease in interest rates will bring favorable winds," he said.

In addition to the impact of high bond yields, global stock markets have also been under pressure in recent weeks due to the war between Israel and Hamas. Some investors have expressed that geopolitical concerns will have a greater impact on regions outside the United States, which is another obstacle to narrowing the valuation gap.

Wealth management companiesColony GroupChief Market Strategist Ritchie Steinberg(Rich Steinberg)"Considering some geopolitical risks in front of us and in the future, people may hesitate to bet heavily on markets outside of the United States because they have suffered losses in the past," said

The debate surrounding the dominance of the US in global markets has had an impact beyond the asset allocation of investors. This has intensified concerns in financial centers such as London and Frankfurt that potential monopolies in the United States may self strengthen, extracting liquidity from other markets, and encouraging companies to move their listing locations to the United States to achieve higher valuations and trading volumes.

The asset management department of Italy's largest insurance companyGenerali InvestorsLuca Finner, the stock manager of(Luca Fina)Says, "The higher the premium on US stocks, the greater the likelihood of internal discussions on this topic within the company."

Finner said he expects that if the economic outlook improves, the European stock market will narrow some of the gap with the US stock market in the short term, but he said, "In the medium to long term, the US may still be considered the best investment location."

He added, "Ultimately, the most important thing is that the United States has the ability to become the best environment for innovation and create disruptive companies."

However, some people are optimistic about the long-term prospects of global stock markets. JPMorgan Chase's asset management department released a forecast last week, predicting the future10In the year, emerging and developed markets outside the United States will provide returns higher than the US stock market.

David Kelly, Chief Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management(David Kelly)He said that there has been a "trickle" of funds flowing into the international stock market, but he also admitted that similar bets recently left a "bad impression" on many investors.

He said the difference this time is that due to strong overseas economic growth and narrowing interest rate differentials, the bank expects the US dollar to gradually weaken. This will make non US investments more attractive to US based traders, who are the main force in global stock investment.

Kelly said, "When American investors truly believe that international (stocks) is a good idea, international (stocks) will perform well. I believe that the great reconciliation between American and international investors will begin with the decline of the US dollar."