ATFXInternational Market, Looking Forward to Major Events of the Week（1023~1027）

本周的数据、事件重要性由高到低分别为：欧央行利率决议、加拿大央行利率决议、美国9Monthly CorePCE年率。我们来逐一分析解读：


This Thursday20:15Announced by the European Central Bank10As a result of the monthly interest rate resolution, financial institutions generally expect the European Central Bank to remain silent. to10month26The pre value of the main refinancing rate of the European Central Bank in Japan is4.5%The expected value remains unchanged. On the same day20:45European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde held a press conference on monetary policy, focusing on Lagarde's views on the inflation rate, unemployment rate, Russia-Ukraine conflict and international oil prices in the euro area. Eurozone9monthCPIthe annual rate4.3%，连续六个月下降，通胀形势进一步好转，激进加息的必要性越来越低。欧央行上一次利率决议会议纪要中提到：“经济已经趋弱，通胀料将在预测期内回到目标”。表明欧央行内部已经存在一部分支持停止加息的官员。风险点在于，OPEC集团和俄罗斯的减产计划正主导国际油价走势，高涨的国际油价有可能会驱动欧元区出现新一轮通胀上升。我们认为，即便欧央行10月如预期一般维持基准利率不变，也仅仅是暂停加息，未来仍有重启加息的可能。


This Wednesday22:00The Bank of Canada will announce10月利率决议结果，金融机构预期将按兵不动，基准利率将维持5%不变。当日23:00，加拿大央行行长和高级副行长召开货币政策新闻发布会，重点关注其对通胀率和失业率数据的表态。加拿大高通胀问题并不严重，9monthCPI年率最新值仅为3.8%，远低于欧元区和英国的通胀水平。今年6月份，加拿大CPI年率增速甚至跌至2.8%，距离长期通胀调控目标2%仅一步之遥。另外，加拿大最新失业率5.5%，高于自然失业率标准5%，劳动力市场存在需求不足的问题。高利率往往会抑制企业扩大规模和招聘新员工，所以加拿大央行不仅会停止加息，甚至要为失业率数据恶化之后的降息做好准备。


This Friday20:30The US Department of Commerce will announce9Monthly CorePCEAnnual rate of price index, previous value is3.9%Financial institutions are expected to3.7%It is expected that there will be a slight decrease. corePCEData and CoreCPIThe trend resonance of data is strong,9Monthly CoreCPIData display, latest value4.1%, lower than the previous value4.3%, which is consistent with the expected value. Based on this judgment, the corePCEThe data will fluctuate in the same direction, and financial institutions have a high probability of achieving it. Although thatPCE数据的统计方法更合理，但其发布的时间往往在每月的下旬，滞后性太强，所以对金融市场的影响性往往不及CPI数据。预计在9monthPCE数据发布后的五分钟内，美元指数或将出现小幅下跌走势。

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-10-24