ATFXForeign exchange market: US dollar index falls below key support, gold touches2000Fall back after the checkpoint

Yesterday, without the release of heavyweight data, the US dollar index plummeted significantly0.52%, lowest touch105.51Surprisingly, it surprised market participants. The US dollar index shows a reverse volatility relationship with US bond prices: the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, US bond prices fall (yields increase), and the US dollar index rises; The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, US bond prices rise (yields fall), and the US dollar index falls. On the news side, authoritative figure Bill Ackerman stated that it is not appropriate to continue short selling the bond market at the current interest rate level because there are too many risks globally. The emergence of bullish groups in the international financial market indicates that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle may be nearing its end. If economic data signals a recession, US bond prices are highly likely to rebound. As Bill Ackerman said, "The pace of economic slowdown in the United States is faster than recent data shows.". It is precisely under the deepening expectation of a bottom in US bond prices that the US dollar index has continued to decline recently.


From a technical perspective, the US dollar index10month3Setting a new high in recent times107.35Afterwards, it began a downward trend and has accumulated a decline of up to today1.5%. Mid term trend long short boundary standardMA30The moving average has been broken, and if the daily closing price of the next three days cannot return above the moving average, the technical form of "long turn short" will be confirmed. Dark redKLine isCOMEXgoldThe trend chart shows that during the period when the US dollar index is falling,COMEXThe price of gold has emerged8.4%The increase reached its highest point during the period2009.2USD, breaking through key resistance levels2000US dollars. The rise of gold is not only affected by the decline of the US dollar index, but also by the ongoing escalation of tensions in the Israeli Palestinian conflict. Currently, it appears that both bullish factors for gold will not disappear in the short term,COMEXGold still has the momentum to continue rising.

The latest yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds4.9481%Although compared to the highest point5.1020%There has been some decline, but the upward structure has not changed, so there is still significant uncertainty about whether the rebound in US bond prices and the decline in the US dollar index can continue in the medium term. Although Bill Ackerman believes that the US economy is slowing down rapidly, what the market is most concerned aboutCPIJudging from the unemployment rate data, a recession seems unlikely to arrive soon.3.7%The inflation rate can no longer be called "malignant inflation" or "high inflation";3.8%The unemployment rate is much lower than5%The natural unemployment rate is still high, and there is still strong demand in the labor market. Many companies are still actively recruiting employees. Overall, although the technical US dollar index is facing medium-term downward pressure, the logic of bearish fundamentals is still relatively weak.

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-10-24