Ultima MarketsMarket analysis: Interest rate hikes are far away, and the New York dollar is on the verge of collapse

todayUltima Markets Bringing you 2023 year 10 month19JPY/USDIn depth analysis.

Fundamental points

·        New Zealand Q3CPIData below expectationsThe decline in price levels means that the monetary policy of the New York Fed is no longer tight, and the market expects the Fed to take action next year2Month instead of this year11Monthly interest rate hikes.

·        Political changes in New ZealandThe opposition National Party won the parliamentary election.

·        The US dollar index has slightly risenFederal Reserve Director Waller changed his tone and said that the Federal Reserve may need to continue raising interest rates, causing the US dollar index to rise and closing higher yesterday0.33%Report106.58。

technical analysis

Weekly chart analysis

Weekly chart of New Zealand dollar to US dollar, sourceUltimaMarkets MT4）

·        KLine structureLast week, the weekly chart finally closed with an upward shadow, indicating that the downward trend of the New York dollar has not yet ended. This week's weekly chart has already fallen below last week's low level, and the market has not yet reached the stage of reversal and upward trend in the short term.

·        Random oscillation indexThe indicator has once again formed a dead cross in the oversold area, with bearish forces dominating in the short term. It is worth noting that due to the exchange rate9Month to10The monthly correction is too weak, and there is a probability that the indicator will form a bottom divergence structure. It implies that even if the market falls this week, there is a possibility of price reversal and upward trend next week.

·        Fibonacci callback ratioMarket situation since last year10Starting from mid month, it will continue to rise this year1Starting from the month of adjustment. stay61.8%Slightly volatile, since it continues to decline this week, the next target is looking towards78.6%The retracement price at this limit.

4Hour chart analysis

(NZD to USD)4Hour chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

·        Upward channel disruptionThe entire upward channel line (red) was completely destroyed after a rapid decline yesterday, and the bearish trend was strong within the day.

·        KLine structureDuring yesterday's US market session, the market rebounded5After the cyclical moving average, a cross shaped structure with a long upward shadow is formed, and then the exchange rate falls below the low point of the cross, confirming the bearish trend.

·        Random oscillation indexThe indicator has once again oversold the regional dead cross, which further indicates the strong power of bears. Despite being crowded with bears, one cannot take the risk of entering the market to make a profit. If you want to go long, you can only wait for the bullish trend to establish before observing.

Hub Line Indicators

(NZD to USD)1Hour chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

·        according toUltimaMarkets MT4InpivotIndicator, daily central price level0.58757，

·        0.5875Upward bullish, first goal0.59005Second objective0.59448

·        0.5875Under bearish, first target0.58322Second objective0.58071

Disclaimers

The comments, news, research, analysis, pricing, and other information contained in this article can only be considered as general market information and are provided solely to assist readers in understanding the market situation and do not constitute investment advice.UltimaMarketsReasonable measures have been taken to ensure the accuracy of the data, but the accuracy of the data cannot be guaranteed and can be changed at any time without notice.UltimaMarketsWe will not be responsible for any losses or losses (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.