ATFXCurrency: United States9monthCPI增速高于预期，美元指数“一阳吞三阴”

周四，美国劳工部公布9monthCPI年率增速，最新值3.7%，与前值持平，高于预期值3.6%. nameCPI增速没能如预期一般下降，意味着美联储仍有充足理由在四季度加息。美元指数受到明显提振，昨日涨幅0.79%, highest touch106.61Point,K线组合形成经典的“一阳吞三阴”结构，表明短线涨势强烈。不过，9Monthly CoreCPIThe annual growth rate has increased from4.3%Lower to4.1%，意味着导致名义CPI增速升高的影响因素是能源和食品价格。对于美联储来说，核心CPI的指导意义更强，不排除票委们根据核心CPI数据表现得出“通胀下行，停止加息”的结论。


From a technical perspective, the last five US dollar indicesK线四阴一阳，但阳线幅度远大于阴线幅度，K线组合呈现出由空转多的特征。中短期均线系统向下排列，提示短期跌势尚未结束；中长期均线系统向上排列，提示长周期趋势依旧偏多。KDThe readings of the indicators are64/74，正从超买区间向超卖区间运动，提示下跌波段仍有足够延续空间。综合来看，虽然昨日美指受CPI数据影响大涨，但多数技术指标仍提示未来走势偏空，此时抄底需谨慎。

美国十年期国债收益率昨日大涨，其技术走势与美元指数类似，都处于中长期多头趋势下的短线回调状态。未来美联储官员将会对9monthCPI数据发表自己的看法，如果表态偏鹰，亦即支持四季度加息，则十年期美债收益率和美元指数将再受提振。一年期美债收益率5.43%，与当前基准利率5.25%~5.5%持平，意味着美联储在四季度既不会加息也不会降息，而是保持基准利率不变。基于此，美元指数有可能在9monthCPI数据落地后保持震荡态势，震荡区间即为10The highest point since the beginning of the month107.35And the lowest point105.56Points.

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2023-10-13