ATFXCurrency: United States9monthCPIData coming, institutions expect annual growth rate to continue to decline

today20:30The United States Department of Labor will announce9Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIAnnual growth rate, previous value is3.7%, expected3.6%；9Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIAnnual rate, announced at the same time, with a previous value of4.3%, expected4.1%. Whether in name or notCPIGrowth rate or coreCPIThe growth rate and institutional expectations are both downward, indicating that the problem of high inflation in the United States is likely to continue to ease. Without considering the impact of the non farm payroll report, lower inflation rates will reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in the fourth quarter, and the US dollar index will be hit by bearish sentiment. However,9The monthly non farm payroll in the United States is as high as33.6Ten thousand people indicate strong demand in the labor market, strong macroeconomic resilience, and no significant impact from high interest rate policies. Even if the issue of high inflation is no longer urgent, the Federal Reserve may still continue to raise interest rates to avoid potential inflation caused by economic overheating.


From a technical perspective, the US dollar index has had the last sixKAll lines have closed negative, with a strong short-term decline. It is not recommended to take a bottom hastily. Short term moving average systemMA5/MA10It has crossed downwards and the short-term trend is bearish; Medium - and long-term moving average systemMA20/MA30Still maintaining a long divergent arrangement, howeverMA5Already in contact withMA20Crossing downwards, there is a possibility that short-term bearish positions may spread to the medium term.KDThe readings of the indicators are60/75, still above the oversold line20There is still enough room for a decline in the future. Overall, the short-term decline of the US dollar index is strong, and the medium-term bullish trend is gradually becoming unstable. IfKLine breakMA30If there is support, the probability of a "long turn short" trend in the future market will increase significantly. From the news perspective, Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic stated that the current monetary policy is restrictive enough to bring inflation rates back to normal2%The goal is to. The Federal Reserve should stop raising interest rates. This dovish statement is the direct cause of the decline in the US dollar index.

It should be noted that the impact on the United StatesCPIThe two major factors driving data trends are oil and real estate, and price fluctuations in both may lead to different outcomes expected by institutions. United States9monthWTIfuturesAccumulated price increase8.54%, forCPIData has an enhancing effect.9The real estate sector of the US stock market performed poorly in the month, with a cumulative decline7.33%Market expectations are relatively pessimistic. fromWTIJudging from the trends in the real estate market, the United States9monthCPIThe annual rate data still remains variable and may be affected byWTIFutures prices rise due to the impact of rising prices. However, excluding the core impact of energy and food pricesCPIThe annual rate data is likely to experience a decrease in year-on-year growth rate as expected by institutions.

Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-10-12