Ultima Markets：【行情分析】受油价拖累，加元贬值加剧

Today's Focus--USD to CAD。

Fundamentally，尽管昨日美国经济数据不佳，导致美元抛售情绪明显。但侧面暗示出crude oil需求破坏的迹象和宏观经济形势暗淡，原油价格开始跌跌不休，这也一定程度上带动能源出口国货币的贬值趋势。加元短期的贬值趋势更强，重点关注周五加拿大和美国的就业市场数据。

Technically speaking，原油价格在回踩后终究跌破了M顶的颈线位置，具体分析可以参考《油价顶部结构形成，原油看空情绪飙升》，这一定程度上带动了加元的贬值趋势。周线图上，美元兑加元本周收线即将突破去年10月份以来的下行趋势线的压制，随机震荡指标也即将再度完成上行趋势的确认。

Weekly chart of US dollar to Canadian dollar, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

在这样的关键价格附近，不能排除继续受阻下行的概率，目前仍然没有办法判断行情突破有效，需要等待周五收盘确认。

USD to CAD4Hour chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

4小时图上，昨日价格上破周线级别的下行趋势线后开始疲软无力。美盘时段，行情继续上行，随机震荡指标却出现背离的下跌趋势，暗示汇率将陷入调整周期。回调目标可以关注下方斐波纳奇的3个回撤位置以及上行通道上沿一带。

USD to CAD1Hourly cycle chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

1小时周期图上，23.6%回撤位置1.36923是极其关键的支撑价位，下跌趋势或将在该价位终止。反过来说，跌破该价位意味着行情跌破了周线级别的下行趋势线，本周的上行则有一定假突破的嫌疑。同时1小时汇率走势上也形成了M顶的筑顶结构，行情势必将继续下行，或将看向50%回撤位置一带。

USD to CAD1Hourly cycle chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

according toUltima Markets MT4InpivotIndicator, daily central price level1.37375，

1.37375Upward bullish, first goal1.37846Second objective1.38264

1.37375Under bearish, first target1.36966Second objective1.36495

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