Ultima Markets：【行情分析】澳洲通胀大概率上行，澳联储或...

Today's Focus--AUD to USD。

FundamentallyAustralia8monthCPI数据将于今日公布，市场预期通胀或将从7Of4.9%Ascend to5.2%，从而结束最近的稳步下降趋势，引发有关年底前进一步加息的讨论。9月澳洲联储利率决议上表示，暂停加息将提供时间评估加息的影响。而当前劳动力市场条件仍然紧张。

澳大利亚的通胀已经达到峰值。综合来看，8月通胀上行是大概率事件，但是上涨原因更多在于澳元贬值和油价上涨的因素。因此澳联储或想让子弹飞会，再决定是否需要加息。今日数据公布后，澳元或将反弹，但是能否形成强势的上涨需要打个问号。

Technically speaking，日线图上随机震荡指标字9month22日确认向下后，汇率并未顺势下行反而震荡三个交易日。

Daily chart of AUD/USD, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

昨日行情跌破5日短期均线，暗示震荡或将结束，等待跌破9month21日低点后即可寻找做空机会。

AUD to USD4Hour chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

4小时图上，近期的下跌并非一帆风顺，在接近前低之际，随机震荡指标却并未快速进入超卖区间。行情或将在前低附近受到支撑，随机震荡指标届时将走出底背离的结构。

AUD to USD1Hourly cycle chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

1小时周期前期的三波上涨结构完整，行情调整理论上已经结束，但是不能排除澳元将走出更长周期的调整结构，若如此则后续反弹至少看向100%的斐波那契位置。但是行情今日若没有开启全面反弹，则行情在回踩均线后将快速下跌。

AUD to USD1Hourly cycle chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

according toUltima Markets MT4InpivotIndicator, daily central price level0.64050，

0.64050Upward bullish, first goal0.64218Second objective0.64483

0.64050Under bearish, first target0.63792Second objective0.63619

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