ATFXCurrency Market: Why does the Bank of England keep interest rates unchanged instead of raising them25Base point?

9month21Day, Bank of England9Monthly interest rate resolution announced, maintained5.25%The benchmark interest rate remains unchanged, and the market had previously expected the Bank of England to raise interest rates25Base point. After the announcement,GBPUSDFrom the highest point in five minutes1.2300Down to1.2239, decline61Base point. The minutes of the Bank of England meeting mentioned that although oil prices have once again brought upward pressure, as the economy slows down, it is expected that the inflation rate will decrease in the medium term2%Below. It can be seen that officials from the Bank of England are extremely optimistic about the trend of inflation rates, partly due to the UK's announcement on Wednesday8monthCPIUnexpected annual rate from6.8%Lowered to6.7%； coreCPIAnnual rate from6.9%Lower to6.2%. Objectively speaking,6%The above inflation rates still have the characteristics of malignant inflation. At this time, the Bank of England announced a suspension of interest rate hikes, which is highly likely to lead to higher inflation rates in the future.


From a technical perspective,GBPUSDLast FiveKThe line has three yin, one yang, and one cross star, and the range of the negative line is relatively large, with a significant short-term decline. The moving average system is arranged downwards, with a significant short position in the medium to long term trend.MACDThe indicator bar line has been below the zero axis for a long time, and the absolute values of the recent two bar lines show signs of amplification. Awesome Oscillator KDThe reading is8.5/14, all in20Below the oversold warning line, it indicates that the market trend will end and there may be a rebound at any time. Overall, most indicators determineGBPUSDWe are still in a bearish trend, and although there is a possibility of an oversold rebound, it is not recommended to operate recklessly when the bottom is unclear.

From a fundamental perspective, the UK7Monthly unemployment rate4.3%For four consecutive months, the labor market has performed poorly. Due to the fact that interest rate hikes and high interest rates will suppress investment and consumption activities, leading to economic recession and higher unemployment rates, we conclude that the Bank of England's so-called "inflation rate will decrease2%The following "is not the most important reason," avoiding the unemployment rate from continuing to rise "is the fundamental reason for stopping interest rate hikes. The internationally recognized standard line for full employment is5%Once the standard is exceeded, it means that a large number of eligible workers cannot find jobs. Britain4.3%The unemployment rate is only one step away from this standard, and if interest rates continue to rise, it may lead to even worse consequences.

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-09-22