ATFXForeign exchange market: The Federal Reserve announces that interest rates will remain unchanged, while Powell continues to be hawkish...

This morning02:00The Federal Reserve announced9Monthly interest rate resolution result, announced to maintain5.25%~5.5%The federal funds interest rate range remains unchanged.2:00~2:05The US dollar index has reached its lowest point104.75Soaring to the highest point105.21Corresponding toEURUSDExchange rate from highest1.0727Falling to the lowest point1.0674, decline53Base point. Early morning02:30Federal Reserve Chairman Powell began his speech, mentioning that "energy prices do not have a significant indicative effect on economic trends; they are prepared to further raise interest rates in appropriate circumstances; they have never intended to signal any timing of interest rate cuts. This speech is significantly hawkish and conveys to the international market a great determination to raise interest rates and maintain high interest rates, which has continued the upward trend of the US dollar index. In addition, the yield of US 10-year treasury bond bonds soared to4.4233%The one-year US Treasury yield has also seen a significant increase, and the bond market has strong expectations for the US federal funds rate to remain high.


From a technical perspective, the last five US dollar indicesKThree Yang, One Yin, One Cross Star, AllKThe entities of the lines are relatively small, and the short term tends to be weak and bullish. The moving average system dates back to8At the beginning of the month, there was already a long trend, with a significant long trend in the medium term.MACDThe column line of the indicator has been above the zero axis for a long time, but recently9The severe contraction of the trading day's bar line indicates the exhaustion of the bullish upward momentum.KDThe readings of the indicators are81/80At the overbought line warning line80Above, continuing to rise will face increasing resistance. Overall, most technical indicators support the continued bullish upward trend of the US dollar index, but the momentum and space for further gains are already limited. It is necessary to be cautious of potential pullback bands at any time.

From a fundamental perspective, the United States8Monthly CoreCPIAnnual rate from4.7%Descend to4.3%The problem of high inflation has been further alleviated. If from nominalCPIIn absolute terms, the United States has basically shaken off the impact of high inflation. Based on this, the Federal Reserve's policy of maintaining high interest rates lacks a reliable basis for inflation rates, which may also lead to a decline in investment and consumer markets. The only reasonable explanation is that the Federal Reserve hopes for a "policy overshoot" to provide more ample space for future monetary policy adjustments. We believe that before major crises break out in various industries in the United States, the Federal Reserve will continue to release hawkish signals to the international market, and even if there is a short-term correction in the US dollar index, the long-term trend will still be bullish.

Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-09-21