ATFXForeign exchange market: Federal Reserve9The monthly interest rate resolution is coming, and the market is expected to remain calm

Thursday morning2:00, the Federal Reserve will announce9The result of the monthly interest rate resolution, the mainstream market expectation is that the Federal Reserve will remain calm and maintain5.25%~5.5%The interest rate range remains unchanged. If the expectation falls, there is a high probability that the US dollar index will encounter resistance and fall back.2:30Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference, and based on his previous speeches, the probability of Powell "setting an eagle" is high. During the speech, the US dollar index is highly likely to rebound significantly. In addition to the Federal Reserve, there will also be interest rate decisions from the Bank of England, the Swiss Central Bank, and the Swedish Central Bank on Thursday, and the market generally expects these central banks in Europe to raise interest rates25The reason is that the issue of high inflation remains severe. Compared to the United StatesCPIThe annual growth rate is3.7%Has entered the category of relatively mild inflation; And in the UK6.8%, still in a state of high inflation. The different directions of economic data can lead to deviations in the monetary policies of European central banks and the Federal Reserve. As the Federal Reserve becomes increasingly inclined to stop raising interest rates, the tightening monetary policies of European countries will have a bearish impact on the US dollar index.


From a technical perspective, the last five US dollar indicesKThe line has three yang and two yin, with an overall oscillating structure, and the short term bulls lack sufficient strength. The moving average system presents a bullish pattern, with a significant bullish trend in the medium term.MACDThe bar line has been above the zero axis for several consecutive days, but there are signs of a decrease in the absolute value of the bar line, and the strength of the bull trend is insufficient.KDThe indicator readings are respectively77/79, not yet reached80The overbought warning line for bulls can still continue, but there is not much room for upward movement. Overall, most indicators indicate that the US dollar index is still in a bullish trend, but the strength of the upward trend has decreased and there is insufficient space, so it is necessary to remain vigilant about this.

From a bond market perspective, one-year US Treasury yields5.4741%The current federal funds rate is basically at the same level, which means that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising or lowering interest rates in the medium term is not high. The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds is still increasing, and it just broke through this week20The new high since the beginning of the year means that the bond market still has expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. In fact, in the long run, even if the Federal Reserve is not9The monthly interest rate hike has stopped, and the process of interest rate hikes is nearing its end. Whether high interest rates will seriously harm investment and consumption is a key topic of market attention in the next stage, and also a core factor determining the direction of the US dollar index.

Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-09-20