ATFXFutures Market:WTIDouble station with Brent crude oil90USD level, impact of production reduction...

Message from Saudi Minister of EnergyAbdulaziz bin SalmanWe are not targeting oil prices, but rather hoping to reduce them（crude oilThe volatility of the market However, in reality, the volatility of the crude oil market has not decreased. In the past few months, Saudi Arabia and Russia have continuously released news of extended production cuts and oil exports, leading to a sustained surge in international refueling. As of yesterday's closing,WTIOn the price station91USD level, Brent crude oil approaching94The US dollar and global oil prices are rapidly rising.


takeWTIBrent Crude Oil DayKAfter stacking the lines, it was found that the oil distribution price was always atWTIAbove, the price difference between the two2~3The reason for this is that the quality of cloth oil is slightly better than that of American oil. The resonance between the market trends of American oil and oil distribution is extremely strong, and the rhythm of both rising and falling is basically maintained. From a technical perspective,WTILast FiveKThe line is all positive, with obvious characteristics of short-term rapid rise. The moving average system is long headed, with a significant long term trend.MACDThe indicator has been above the zero axis for a long time, but the bar line has definitely not been able to effectively amplify, and there is a possibility that the upward force will fall into oscillation. Awesome Oscillator KDThe readings are respectively93/92, all higher than80The overbought standard is expected to show a pullback trend in the short term. Overall, most indicators are effective forWTIThe judgment is that the bull trend continues, but due to the long duration of the rise, there is a strong demand for a pullback. Once the latest fiveKThe top structure composed of lines will have the potential to quickly expand and retract.

Looking at inventory data,2015Since,EIAThere is a clear lower limit for inventory3.94Billion barrels and a clear inventory ceiling5.4Billion barrels. As of9month8Day and week,EIAThe latest inventory value is4.2Billion barrels, distance3.94The lower limit of one billion barrels is very close. Once the inventory curve bottoms out and rebounds, crude oil prices will lose fundamental support, and a downward trend will follow. It should be noted that,9month8Compared to the previous week's inventory data, the daily and weekly inventory data4.16Billion barrels have already grown. If this growth continues in the next two weeks,WTIBull holders need to be alert to the arrival of inventory turning points.

Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-09-19