ATFXForeign exchange market: The euro has seen a near increase in the third quarter6%What is the reason for the depreciation of?

7month18From now on,EURUSDFrom highest1.1276All the way down to the lowest price of the previous week1.0632Accumulated decline5.7%, greatly exceeding market expectations. In the second quarter, the mainstream market expectation is that the problem of high inflation in the United States has been substantially alleviated, and the Federal Reserve will soon stop raising interest rates, leading to a decline in the US dollar index. However, the economic data of the United States is far more resilient than market expectations, and the attitude of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is also far more hawkish than market expectations. The "hard landing" of the US economy did not occur: the White House debt ceiling was lifted, the non farm employment report performed well, and high interest rates did not lead to an industry crisis. On the contrary, the signs of economic recession in European and Asian countries are more evident, with a large amount of safe haven hot money entering the United States, ultimately pushing up the US dollar index and impacting the value of the euro.


From a technical perspective,EURUSDLast FiveKThere are three Yin and two Yang lines, with a long Yang line, and the overall structure tends to plummet towards the short term.MACDThe indicator has been below the zero axis for a long time, but in recent times, the absolute value of the bar has decreased, showing a certain degree of oscillation. The short positions in the moving average system are arranged, and the medium to long term trend remains significant short positions. Awesome Oscillator KDThe readings are respectively28/22The oversold range has not yet been reached, and there is still room for a decline in the exchange rate. Overall, most indicators indicateEURUSDIt will continue to decline, but the pace of decline will slow down and the space for decline will be greatly compressed.

From a fundamental perspective, the eurozone7Monthly inflation rate5.3%, still in a state of hyperinflation. today17：00Eurostat to announce the Eurozone8monthCPIThe annual growth rate is expected to remain at the same level as before, indicating that the problem of high inflation in the eurozone will persist for a long time. Last week, the European Central Bank conducted9Monthly interest rate resolution, final decision to continue raising interest rates25The main reason for this is the high inflation rate. Experience shows that the ECB's interest rate hike helps the euro appreciate. In fact, on the day the European Central Bank announced a rate hike, the euro did not rise but instead fell sharply. Overall, there are many concerns in the international financial market about the economic recovery of the eurozone, especially the rising interest rates that may drag down the real estate industry, banking industry, and real economy, which is not conducive to the appreciation of the euro.

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-09-19