ATFXForeign exchange market: European Central Bank raises interest rates25Base point, whyEURUSDNot rising but falling sharply

9month14On the th, the European Central Bank's interest rate resolution announced the results: the main refinancing rate, deposit convenience rate, and marginal loan rate will all be raised25A basis point, this is2022year7The tenth interest rate hike since the beginning of the month. President Lagarde said at a press conference, "We believe that the current key interest rates of the European Central Bank have reached a level that can be maintained for a sufficient period of time. This speech was interpreted by market participants as the "last interest rate hike". Affected by this, yesterday,EURUSDPlummet122Basis point0.8%, lowest touch1.0632Points.


From a technical perspective,EURUSDThe Last Five ofKThe line with two yang, two yin, and one cross star originally had oscillatory characteristics, but due to yesterday's excessively large negative line, the short-term trend was biased towards empty. Short positions are arranged in the moving average system, and the trend of short positions in the medium to long term continues.MACDThe bar line remains below the zero axis for a long time, but the absolute value of the bar line is small, with the possibility of oscillation or trend reversal.KDThe values of the indicators are15/16Being within the oversold range suggests that there may be a rebound in the short term. Overall,EURUSDAlthough the bearish trend is significant, multiple indicators suggest the possibility of a rebound, and short-term traders need to remain cautious.

From a fundamental perspective, the latest inflation rate in the eurozone5.3%However, it is still at a relatively high level, and the problem of high inflation has not been substantially alleviated. Although Lagarde hinted at "the last rate hike," there is still a high possibility that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates if the inflation rate data in the coming months do not match. It should be noted that leadingEURUSDThe trend is based on the US dollar index and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, so the performance of US macroeconomic data is equally important.8Month, US CoreCPIThe annual growth rate has increased from4.7%Lower to4.3%The problem of high inflation has been substantially alleviated.9month21The Federal Reserve's monetary policy on the day is likely to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged, which is bearish for the US dollar index. Driven by such market expectations, it is expected that9month21The recent rise in the US dollar index/EURUSDThere may be a certain degree of change in the downward trend of.

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-09-15