Ultima MarketsMarket analysis: Oil prices drive the appreciation of the Canadian dollar, but it is difficult to change...

Today's Focus--USD to CAD。

Fundamentally,The continuous rise in oil prices this week has driven market demand for the Canadian dollar, driving its appreciation and to some extent increasing the difficulty of implementing the Bank of Canada's monetary policy.

In the short term, oil prices have an impact on the appreciation trend of the Canadian dollar, but as Canada's actual per capita in the second quarterGDPYear-on-year shrinkage,5The unemployment rate began to rise in January, coupled with the continued drag of mortgage renewal, Canada's price level may steadily decline. thereforecrude oilWithout unexpected changes in supply and demand in the market, it may be difficult to change the Bank of Canada's10The position of maintaining interest rates unchanged at the meeting in September.

Technically,The downward trend line on the weekly chart of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar effectively prevented the exchange rate from further rising, and this week saw a downward trend after encountering obstacles last week. However, the random fluctuation indicator clearly indicates a bearish signal and needs to wait for the final closing today.

Weekly chart of US dollar to Canadian dollar, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

Market from8Touched in mid month200After the weekly moving average, the upward trend begins. Based on the complete five wave structure of the entire upward trend, the current decline is temporarily judged as an adjustment structure of the previous upward trend. After sufficient adjustment, the Canadian dollar may further depreciate against the US dollar.

Daily chart of US dollar to Canadian dollar, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

On the daily chart, the US dollar has reached a crucial support position against the Canadian dollar. After the random fluctuation indicator issued a double deviation signal, the market finally fell back. Currently, it has dropped to33Near the daily moving average, this price area is also the support position after the breakthrough of the upper shadow line in the early stage. The clear top structure means that the current support position is in a strong resistance area, and bulls may experience a "comeback" in that area in the future 。

USD to CAD1Hourly cycle chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

1On the hourly chart, the fluctuation indicator also issued a bottom deviation signal yesterday, and the market is likely to consolidate or rebound in the short term. If the market breaks through during the sub market period1.35173You can focus on rebound trading opportunities within the day, with the first goal being to focus on the red ones65Near the moving average.

USD to CAD1Hourly cycle chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

according toUltima Markets MT4InpivotIndicator, daily central price level1.35173，

1.35173Upward bullish, first goal1.35422Second objective1.35789

1.35173Under bearish, first target1.34816Second objective1.34570

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