9month14Rihui City Evening Review:There is still controversy over whether the European Central Bank will raise interest rates

Thursday（9month14Summary of the Japanese foreign exchange market: Today, the white market US dollar index fluctuated at high levels. about11Whether to continue raising interest rates in the month of the month is a matter of disagreement among market forecasts, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again within the year cannot be ruled out. Therefore, the US dollar index remained at its recent high level on Wednesday. If the European Central Bank maintains interest rates unchanged, it will inevitably lower the bet on further interest rate hikes in the future, and the euro will be hit. The Bank of Japan has been slow to maintain super loose interest rates and has remained inactive in monetary policy, which directly puts pressure on the yen and continues to weaken. Investors can focus on this evening20:30From the United States to9month9Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week and20:30U.S.A8Monthly retail sales rate.

Thursday（9month14Summary of the Japanese foreign exchange market: Today, the white market US dollar index fluctuated at high levels. about11Whether to continue raising interest rates in the month of the month is a matter of disagreement among market forecasts, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again within the year cannot be ruled out. Therefore, the US dollar index remained at its recent high level on Wednesday. If the European Central Bank maintains interest rates unchanged, it will inevitably lower the bet on further interest rate hikes in the future, and the euro will be hit.. The Bank of Japan has been slow to maintain super loose interest rates and has remained inactive in monetary policy, which directly puts pressure on the yen and continues to weaken. Investors can focus on this evening20:30From the United States to9month9Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week and20:30U.S.A8Monthly retail sales rate.

Today's Foreign Exchange Market News Inventory

1.There is still controversy over whether the European Central Bank will raise interest rates. Tonight, US "terrorist data" arrives

Today Beijing Time20:15The European Central Bank announces its interest rate resolution,20:45President Lagarde holds a press conference; US retail sales data will be available on20:30Announcement. At present, there is still controversy over whether the European Central Bank will raise interest rates, and the market expects it to do so25The probability of exceeding one basis point6Yes, but even raising interest rates may not save the euro. And what kind of volatility will the US retail sales data, known as "terrorist data," bring to the market?

2.The European Central Bank's interest rate meeting this week is gripping

Among the economists surveyed by the institution34It is expected to remain calm, and the probability of another interest rate hike in the money market is two-thirds. According to insiders, there is also a lack of firmness within the European Central Bank's management committee as the meeting approaches. Including PortugalMarioDecision makers inside are concerned that another rate hike will endanger the European economy. SlovakPeterOthers believe that without further action, the inflation rate will not recover to2%The target level has not been clearly stated by President Lagarde. The current situation in Europe has raised concerns about stagflation. The European Commission lowered its outlook this week and currently expects the economy to only grow this year0.8%，2024Annual growth1.3%. The management committee is expected to reiterate that it will continue to use data-based methods to formulate policies, taking into account inflation prospects, potential price pressures, and the impact of past monetary tightening on the economy.

3.The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates for the last time25Basis points

The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates for the last time25The reason is that the inflation momentum is still too strong. In addition, it is expected that the current plan will be12month24The Emergency Anti Epidemic Bond Purchase Program that Ends on the Day（PEPP）The comprehensive reinvestment process will come to an early end, or10Announce at the monthly meeting.

4.Economic forecasts from the European Central Bank may be crucial

Banking institutions point out that due to the European Central Bank9The interest rate decision at the monthly meeting is very balanced, and the economic forecasts of the European Central Bank staff will play a crucial role. In recent predictions, at least2024In terms of predicting annual core inflation, there is often a more dovish influence. We expect European Central Bank staff to move the eurozoneGDPPredict from2023Of0.9%、2024Of1.5%and2025Of1.6%Respectively reduce to0.5%、0.7%and1.4%. expect2023yearCPIWill be removed from5.4%Up to5.7%，2024yearCPIRoughly maintained at3.0%，2025yearCPIWill be downgraded, with overallCPIExpected to be2.1%, CoreCPIby2.2%。

Technical analysis

euro/USD: Today against EUR/The expected trend for the US dollar is bearish. On the daily chart, purely based on various technical indicators, there seem to be traces of bottom deviation,MACDThe signal line shows signs of forming a golden cross. We need to mitigate the risk of short-term oversold adjustment and rebound. Overall, the euro/The US dollar is still below the middle track of the Bollinger Belt, maintaining a sound downward channel shape.

pound/USD: Today against GBP/The expected trend for the US dollar is bearish. Recently, GBP/The US dollar closed at1.25Below, the trajectory leading to the pound's movement in the downward channel becomes more apparent, although the technical indicators are oversold, it cannot be ruled out that the pound and the US will further explore the trend of continuing to decline. Only through upward breakthroughs1.2550The recent strong resistance position may only be expected to temporarily halt the decline and begin attempting to rebound and recover.

dollar/JPY: Today against USD/The expected trend for the yen is bullish. On the daily level chart, the nearest effective resistance level is located at148.00–149.00Within the scope. dollar/The Japanese yen will need a greater catalyst to push the US dollar towards a move149-150The price range is approaching. But purely from the perspective of technical indicators, the signs of top deviation are gradually becoming apparent, and we should always be vigilant to prevent the occurrence of changes.