ATFXForeign exchange market:8Monthly nominal and coreCPIThe trend is divided, and the inflation rate in the United States is still rising...

据美国劳工部昨日公布的数据，8Month, nominal in the United StatesCPILatest value of growth rate3.7%, higher than the previous value3.2%, higher than expected3.6%There are signs of a resurgence in the issue of high inflation. Published at the same time8Monthly CoreCPILatest annual rate4.3%, lower than the previous value4.7%, which is consistent with expected values, indicating that the problem of high inflation is still continuing to alleviate.8Monthly nominal and coreCPI年率增速出现走势分化，一升一跌，美国的高通胀问题到底是在缓解还是在加重？


yesterday20:30, USA8monthCPIAfter the data was released, the US dollar index jumped to its highest point in the next five minutes104.98，20:33Starting to fall back after five minutesKLine closing, market price has arrived104.77. From the perspective of price trends, the first two minutes reflected nominalCPI将导致美联储更坚决加息，从而提振美元指数的作用；后三分钟体现了核心CPIThis will lead to the Federal Reserve stopping interest rate hikes for a long time, thereby impacting the impact of the US dollar index. Finally, fromKFrom a bearish perspective, pessimism dominates, with the mainstream view that the Federal Reserve is highly likely to stop raising interest rates due to its coreCPIThe stability of data is stronger than nominalCPIThe decision of the Federal Reserve is even more important. So, we believe that,8monthCPIThe results of the data indicate that the problem of high inflation in the United States is significantly easing.

From the perspective of the bond market, yesterdayCPIOn the day of data release, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose from its highest4.352%Lowering to the lowest point4.235%, decline11.7Base point. The bond market yield is a forward-looking indicator of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and a decrease in yield means that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the short term. today20:15The European Central Bank will announce9The market is generally expected to maintain the monthly interest rate resolution results4.25%The benchmark interest rate remains unchanged. If the final result meets expectations, the euro will lose support from expected interest rate hikes and experience a short-term sharp decline, benefiting the US index. It should be noted that the inflation rate in the eurozone is still as high as5.3%, characterized by hyperinflation. In order to better curb high inflation, the European Central Bank still has a considerable probability of raising interest rates.

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-09-14