ATFXForeign exchange market: High oil prices boost commodity currencies, and the Canadian dollar has appreciated significantly for three consecutive days

加拿大石油储量仅次于委内瑞拉和沙特，位居全球第三位，石油行业产值波动对于宏观经济的影响显著。因此，加元成为汇市典型的商品货币，当国际油价高位运行时，加元具有更强的升值动力；当国际油价低位运行时，加元有可能出现超额贬值幅度。6month30From now on,WTI价格四周连阳，累计涨幅超30%，最高价达到89.37美元，牛市特征显著。受此影响，USDCAD三连阴，加元对美元持续升值，中期显现筑顶结构。


From a technical perspective,USDCAD市价已经运行至长期下降阻力线附近，行情本身面临下行压力，高油价对汇率下跌起到了助推作用。K线尚未突破MA均线系统，目前仅能判断为回调，是否能够趋势反转仍需观察。MACD柱线在零轴之下，但绝对值偏低，空头趋势不显著。KD指标数值分别为48.36/58.2，没有触及超买/超卖的警戒线。综合来看，USDCAD面临较强的下行压力，未来可能跌破长期均线MA30。

宏观经济角度看，加拿大GDPAnnual growth rate1.12%；通胀率3.3%；基准利率5%；失业率5.5%。综合来看，基准利率高于通胀率和GDP增速，企业和消费者的贷款意愿受冲击，可能导致宏观经济硬着陆；失业率高于5%的健康标准，且近半年以来处于升势，这是企业扩张性不足，招工力度降低的信号。需要提醒的是，今日20:30The United States Department of Labor will announce8monthCPI数据，如果数据超预期升高，则美联储9month21日加息概率增加，美元升值预期下USDCAD将出现短期升势。相反，如果数据不及预期，USDCAD大概率将延续短线跌势。

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2023-09-13