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USD Index (DXY):
The U.S. Dollar Index rose and fell behind in the session on Tuesday. Today, it opened at104.57附近,由于市场等待美国通胀数据,使得美元指数窄幅震荡。
Brown Brothers Harriman全球货币策略主管Win Thin表示,克利夫兰联储的Nowcast模型表明CPI存在上行风险,9月通胀也持续高位。 Win Thin指出,由于通胀数据预计将显示出持续的粘性,我们认为在明天的消费者物价指数报告中做空美元是有风险的。前美林交易员、The Sevens Report时事通讯的创始人Tom Essayeexpress,CPI确实很关键,因为如果它停止下降趋势,市场将不得不消化美联储将采取更强硬立场的情况,而这将对股市构成阻力。以更常见的方式来看,CPI影响了市场上涨的三个因素中的两个:通货紧缩和市场对美联储是否结束升息的预期。如果CPI数据显示通胀过高,那么这两个因素都可能受到损害。
In terms of yesterday's financial event data, the United StatesNFIBpublish8月小型企业信心指数比预期下跌至91.3,反映出企业对未来经济前景成长有所保守。此外,根据芝商所的FedWatch工具,市场预期美联储下周维持利率不变的可能性为93%But11月会议加息25The probability of a basis point is40.9%,高于周一的38.4%。
From the upward direction, the upper suppression(Upper resistance) 104.50,104.90; From the downward direction, the lower support104.10。
euro/GBP (EURGBP):
After a sharp rise in the euro against the pound on Tuesday, it rose to0.8610附近,由于英国失业率维持在固定水平,使得欧元获得上行空间。
法国兴业银行首席全球 foreign exchangeStrategist Kit Juckes 在周四欧洲央行会议前分析了欧元/英镑前景,指出英国劳动力市场数据显示失业率上升,工资上涨。这并不罕见--工资数据将滞后于就业数据--但这并不妨碍市场信心的增长,下一次 25 个基点的加息(至 5.25%)将是本轮周期的最后一次。就近期而言,周四的欧洲央行会议比英国利率预期对欧元/英镑的影响更大,但我们预计周三公布的月度 GDP 和制造业产出7 月都会下降。如果欧洲央行采取鹰派按兵不动的立场,这可能是一段时间内做空英镑的最后机会。
In terms of yesterday's financial event data, the European Economic Research InstituteZEWAnnouncement of the Eurozone9月经济景气及现况指数皆比前期大幅下降至-8.9and-42.6,其中德国数据普遍下跌呈负成长,显示出分析师和机构投资者对欧元区未来六个月经济的预期有所利差。英国国家统计局按照国际劳工组织ILOpublish7Monthly unemployment rate as expected4.3%,反映出劳动力就业市场仍依旧疲软。
From the upward direction, the upper suppression(Upper resistance) 0.8610,0.8660; From the downward direction, the lower support0.8570。
CPT MarketsRisk Tips and Disclaimers : The above article content is for reference only and is not intended as future investment advice.CPT Markets The articles published are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news as reference.
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